Toronto Maple Leafs Look For Ilya Samsonov to Get Back on Track

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a great year, but for the first time in a long time, they are facing a bit of adversity.

That adversity is coming for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the form of a slump to both their starting goalies.

Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov both got off to great starts to the season (as did Erik Kalgren) and despite injuries to both, the Leafs were getting some of the best 5v5 goaltending in the league.

Unfortunately, since December first the Leafs are 21st  overall, and since the 15th, second to last, getting just an 87% save percentage at 5v5.

In the nine games since then, they are 4-4-1 which isn’t very good.  However, the context here is pretty silly – December 15th marks the first of two straight regulation losses, but they were the first two losses the Leafs suffered in regulation in over a month, and the only time this year they’ve lost back-to-back games (in regulation).

In fact, during this 9 game run, they beat Tampa, Colorado and St. Louis, which is impressive at any time.  Also, seven of the nine games saw the Leafs finish with a 57% Expected Goals Rating or better. This is illustrative how a cap-league with tons of parity works:

A top team plays an incredible 9 game stretch where they basically dominate in all but two games, but their goalies hit a slump and suddenly instead of the .800 team they were for nearly 2 months, they’re a .500 team.

Which brings us to tonight and the hopeful redemption of Ilya Samsonov.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Detroit Red Wings

The Leafs will play the Red Wings for the second time this year.  The Leafs won 4-2 when they played earlier. (all stats from naturalstattrick.com).

The Leafs are 4th overall, Detroit is 21st. Ottawa is 23rd, Montreal 27th and Buffalo 17th, despite this totally being the year that the Atlantic Division was going to become competitive outside the  other four teams who happen to all be among the league’s best (Florida is better than their record).

Detroit is 25th by expected goals, so they’re outperforming their play slightly, but they basically still are a terrible team.

After posting back-to-back shutouts against Anaheim and LA last month, Samsonov has allowed 5, 3, 4 and 5 goals in his last four games.  As much as he’s sucked, the Leafs only lost one of those games in regulation.

The thing about the Leafs is they don’t need elite goaltending to be a great team. Last year, they has the 28th best 5v5 goaltending in the NHL and finished 4th overall.  This year, they are an elite defensive team and they were basically unbeatable for two months when their goalies were on fire.

If Samsonov can get back on track, the Leafs should have no  trouble catching Boston. If he doesn’t, they’ll just have to beat Tampa in April, no biggie.  Either way, they’ll be taking on the Wings tonight.