The Oilers Are Bad, and It’s Not Because of all the Ex Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are run by Kyle Dubas, whose age and experience are minute in comparison to most of his peers.

Ken Holland, originally drafted by the Toronto Maple Leafs back in the 70s, has for decades considered one the best General Managers in hockey.

It’s sort of ironic that Kyle Dubas takes so much heat from hockey traditionalists because Ken Holland – the bastion of experience and traditional hockey values – has constructed a roster filled with players that Dubas cast off.

And it’s extremely ironic that he’s now the worst GM in the game.

But the Oilers problems stretch far beyond giving bad contracts to ex members of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization.

The Oilers Stars Don’t Compare to the Toronto Maple Leafs Stars at 5v5

The Oilers might have a roster problem, a goalie problem, a bad GM, or a dozen other problems.  Maybe it’s chemistry, maybe its leadership or grinders.  But their biggest problem is obvious, and  it is certainly not that Duncan Keith retired.

Their problem is that, for whatever reason, their star players don’t excel at 5v5 like their peers.

McDavid is 18 points ahead of everyone but Draisaitl, and they still might miss the playoffs.

On the balance of the season, McDavid is winning his 5v5 minutes by 3 goals.  His Expected Goals are 55%,  his actual goals are 53%.

Draisaitl is losing his minutes by a single goal, and his expected and real goals-for percentage is 49%.

Matthews is +22 5v5, and is massively outperforming his still-elite 59% Expected Goals Rating.

Marner is winning his minutes by 6 and is posting an impressive 57% Ex Goals Rating.

You can rack up all the points you want on the power-play, consistently winning your 5v5 minutes will make you a much better team.  This is mathematically indisputable.

Matthews more 5v5 points than McDavid does right now.  McDavid is 6th in 5v5 scoring despite being first in total scoring by a mile. That’s a major problem because power-play points are empty calories.

Connor McDavid is is only 17th in the NHL by 5v5 points per minute, looking just at players with 500 5v5 minutes played.   William Nylander is second place.  Draisaitl is 49th.  Michael Bunting is scoring only slightly less per minute than McDavid 5v5.

The Oilers simply have to find a way to play that allows their two amazing players to live up to their abilities.  Goal differentials are one thing, but luck plays a big part in that.  Auston Matthews being a +19 is good, but the 59% goals-for is better, because that doesn’t involve goalies, and so it is repeatable. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Power Play success is not repeatable.  You don’t need to have McDavid level players to have a top power play.  The benefit to generational players is supposed to be how they give you a major advantage when there are a full compliment of players on the ice.

It could be about defense. It could be about not cheating for offense. It could be about playing more conservatively.   Maybe it’s to take a more possession heavy style and less rushing.  Maybe they need better complimentary players.

Who knows?

I am not the coach. All I have is the numbers, and the numbers tell me that as fun as they are to watch, Draisaitl and McDavid are not as successful at regular strength hockey as their superstar peers tend to be, both contemporarily and historically.

When Edmonton solves this problem, and they’ll have one of the top two teams in the NHL.