The Toronto Maple Leafs seem to have no luck when it comes to hitting on low picks.
While other teams stock their roster with found superstars in the lower rounds, the Leafs can brag about Pierre Engvall, Andreas Johnson and not much else.
Nice picks, but a far cry from finding Bradyon Point, Jason Robertson or Nikita Kucherov with a low pick.
The Leafs current prospect system is designed to help the team do what has evaded them since they turned Tomas Kaberle into a borderline hall of famer. Since Kyle Dubas has been in charge, the Leafs have looked to hit on a future late-round star by focusing on skilled players whose high-end hockey smarts, or “hockey IQ” give them a reasonable shot of being late bloomers.
While Nick Robertson, Matthews Knies or another player could eventually turn into a star, the Leafs currently have one player on their roster who has come out of nowhere to win praise from the team’s stars and coach, all the while becoming an indispensable part of the deepest lineup in the NHL.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Rise of Pontus Holmberg
A 23 year old rookie, Holmberg was drafted in round six of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, which is a draft that continues to pay dividends for the Leafs.
Holmberg’s numbers don’t jump off the page – he has just two goals and eight points in 20 games. He has four penalty minutes and is a + 1 (all stats current before the Coyotes game).
Holmberg success isn’t just analytic either – you can see by watching that he’s an effective player who rarely makes a mistake, and the team’s star players and it’s coach have all gone out of their way to publicly mention how great he is.
This is very unusual for rookies playing on the fourth line, but Holmberg is just an effective, steady player. He gets the odd chance, but basically, his job, along with his most common line-mate Zach Aston Reese, is to smother the game and make sure nothing much happens at all.
The Leafs fourth line this year with Holmberg on the ice gets 55% of the scoring chances, while posting an Expected Goals rating of 53%.
Holmberg is averaging a respectable 9:35 of ice time per game 5v5, along with a very small amount of work on the PK (just four minutes all year, but hey, it’s something).
Perhaps the most impressive thing about Holmberg is that he never loses. The Toronto Maple Leafs put him in the lineup, then proceeded to rattle off a 15 game unbeaten streak. The Leafs are 15-2-3 when he plays.
Holmberg may not become a star, but it seems like the Leafs might have found a very solid player for the bottom of their lineup, and he’s even got a small bit of upside.