No Matter What the Toronto Maple Leafs Do, Boston Just Keeps Winning

The Toronto Maple Leafs are red-hot, but they can’t buy a break.

On Tuesday, the Toronto Maple Leafs beat the St. Louis Blue for their third win in a row, and for once, they actually picked up some ground in the standings.

The Bruins – seemingly invincible – lost in overtime last night.

The Ottawa Senators, beat Bruins in overtime last night, allowing the Leafs to gain a point in the standings.

You might think it’s pretty impressive that the Leafs have lost just twice this month in regulation.  The Bruins would disagree, because they’ve only lost once in regulation in December.  That loss was to the Phoenix Coyotes, however, which is worth pointing out since so many of the Leafs critics wanted to completely write them off when they lost to the Coyotes.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Boston Bruins

Despite losing in regulation just three times in about two months, and despite playing nearly a 3rd of the season flirting with an .800 points percentage, and dominating all competition, the Toronto Maple Leafs are somehow seven points behind the Bruins, and the Bruins have a game in hand.

If the Bruins maintain their pace, they are the best team in the history of the NHL.  They currently have won .838 percent of the possible points so far this season.  The best record in NHL history is .825.

We know they aren’t that, no matter how lucky they get.  On paper at least, the Leafs roster is better.  By about a mile.

But still, their pace is remarkable.  Of course the Leafs would go on a near-record setting run, only to have a team in their division just happen to do better.  This is the Leafs we are talking about.

The Leafs are 7-2-1 over the last ten games, but somehow lost ground to Boston, who are 7-1-2.

All you can do is laugh.

The Leafs are 3rd overall, playing out-of-their-minds, and they are still on track to face the team that has gone to three-straight Cup Finals this spring.  Seems fair.

If you look at the two team’s 5v5 stats, they are very similar.  Boston is 3rd in the NHL with a 55.45% Expected Goals Rating.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4th with a 54.23% Expected Goals rating.

Boston is 2nd in 5v5 goaltending, the Leafs are 4th.

The main spot where Boston is better than Toronto is on special teams. The Bruins have the best combined special teams in hockey, the Leafs are seventh.  That is really all it comes down to.

The good news is that special teams are not repeatable.  Just because Boston is 1st so far, there is nothing to say they will maintain that, and the results the rest of the way could determine whether or not the Leafs will pass them. (stat naturalstattrick.com).

I think ultimately, given how close each team is to the other, that the Leafs superior roster will eventually win out.  The Bruins best player, Patrice Bergeron,  might be as good as William Nylander, who is flirting with a 50 goal 100 points season.

The Leafs have 2 x players (Matthews and Marner) would would be the best player on Boston. Maybe three.  The Bruins aren’t that great, and I fully expect the Leafs to catch them.

It might be frustrating to see the Leafs play their best hockey ever and have them fail to gain any ground on the Bruins, but it’s also a total fluke.   The Leafs are going to win the Atlantic Division, and they will also likely win the President’s Trophy and have a good shot at the Stanley Cup.

That’s all that you can ask for.