Mason Marchment Trade Was Actually Good For the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs traded Denis Malgin to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Dryden Hunt earlier this week.

This is a trade that technically makes the Toronto Maple Leafs worse, as Denis Malgin is much more talented than Hunt is, but who knows, maybe Hunt will prove to be a better fit?

I personally liked Malgin’s skill at the bottom of the lineup.  I don’t think he really warranted playing with Tavares and Nylander, but the idea that you can’t use skill players effectively at the bottom of the lineup is outdated and silly.

In my opinion, the Leafs saw an opportunity to add the kind of player they love (low event, awesome at defense) who is also the kind of player they don’t really have (will fight, can destroy people with huge hits).

Everyone wants to make it about Malgin, but I think the Leafs were satisfied with his good play (and the fact that Colorado, a very similarly managed team also likes him is no coincidence) and that he was just the cost of getting what they want.

But the trade did bring up the dumbest thing ever. (some info capfriendly.com).

The Mason Marchment Trade Was Good For the Toronto Maple Leafs

A portion of the Leafs fanbase always falls in love with every big checking grinder the Leafs get.  The fact that Marchment actually worked out and became a good NHL player is a broken clock situation.   No one “knew” he would be good, they just overrate every single player who is similar, and will eventually get one or two right.

Furthermore, Marchment is the son of a former NHL player.  The Coyotes of the 2010s tried to build their entire roster with sons of former players (look it up, they had seven or eight in their system at once at one time) and it didn’t work.  This just made people back in 2019 overrate him, even though history tells us it’s not much of a big deal (For every Nylander there are five or ten Domi’s).

None of this, however, changes the fact that he was 25 and a bad skater by NHL standards.

He played four games with the Leafs and he posted a 30% Corsi and a 30% Expected Goals Rating, while in the AHL he was scoring at a half-point per game pace.

Absolutely none of this suggested a future in the NHL.

Also, the odds of a player who hasn’t made the NHL by 25 making it as an impact player are extremely low.

The Toronto Maple Leafs trade the large, but slow and not-even-performing-well in the AHL Marchment and traded him for a player that was two years younger and had more skill.

The fact that this trade didn’t work out is irrelevant.  Marchment isn’t a star, and is merely just a very good player.  The Leafs remain a top team. Sure, he’s better than Malgin, but it’s not like the Leafs gave away Adam Fox or Martin St. Louis here.

But even if Marchment was Tage Thompson, I’d still say it was the right move to make. It’s like trading down in the draft.  It might not work out every time, but if you do it every time, you’ll make a profit eventually.

If, every time you had the chance, you swapped the slow skating big guy for a skilled player two years younger, you would make a profit over time.

The fact that Marchment worked out is just a fluke, an anomaly.  The thinking process that made the move was the correct one, and that is a far bigger help to the team (over time) than randomly guessing right once.

If you play poker, you know that it rarely makes any sense to pay to stay in the hand to chance a straight when you’re missing one of the middle cards.  Bad players routinely beat good players by paying off bets they are supposed to fold, then winning when they hit a “one-outer.”

They are very happy in the moment, but they’ve also convinced themselves that betting into bad odds can pay them off.  This will be very expensive for them in the future.

The Leafs, in this situation, are the player who elected to fold and then saw their one-outer hit the board.  You wished you stayed in, but you know you’ll make a profit by doing things the right way, every time, over time.