The Maple Leafs may be currently aligned to meet the Lightning but a lot can change between now and the end of the season. To get a sense as to whether there will be much movement, it’s helpful to analyze the math provided by Playoff Status.
The best case scenario for Toronto is for them to finish at the top of the Atlantic Division. Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are just 16-per cent. The Bruins look like they own that spot with an overwhelming 76-per cent chance of capturing it.
Expect the Leafs to finish in their current position, second in the Atlantic. The math says that they have a 42-per cent chance of staying there. The next most likely finishing position is third in the division, for which they have a 24-per cent chance.
The numbers point to it once again being Toronto going head-to-head with Tampa. In fact, there is a 38-per cent chance that that comes to fruition. Not only does that appear to be the clash the Leafs should prepare themselves for but they can expect to do so with a home team advantage.
If somehow the numbers are wrong and it isn’t the Bolts coming to the Big Smoke to open the playoffs, the Leafs could meet Boston. The B’s have the second greatest odds to play the Leafs in Round 1. Those come in at 10-per cent. With the way that Boston has been playing this season, the Leafs will be in no rush to meet them in the post season.
No matter who the Maple Leafs draw in the first round, there will be a lot of pressure on the organization to be victorious. After many years of heartbreak, hopefully, this will be the Leafs year.