When the Toronto Maple Leafs Hit Full Power They Will Be Unstoppable

Last year, on November 15th, the Toronto Maple Leafs were 10-5-1, having played 16 games.

This year, same date, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 8-5-3, which is pretty much the same record, the only difference being that the Leafs lost two games in OT this season that they didn’t last year.

The records may be similar, but this year’s version of the Leafs is superior.

The narrative is that they haven’t gotten off to a very good start, but like every single narrative surrounding any sport, at any time, there is a much more complicated and interesting story below the surface.

The Case for Optimism and the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs have the record they have, despite the fact that Erik Kallgren has played half the games.

If the Leafs were 100% healthy, there was a very clear case for Kallgren being the organization’s 4th goalie, when the season started, after Murray, Samsonov, and Joseph Woll.  Either way, he had to play and his performance was fantastic, and way better than anyone had any right to expect.

The fact that he’s played half their games and they are still a top team bodes very well for their future success.

The Leafs management appears to have put the exact right amount of priority on goalies this past off season.  They acted like it didn’t matter, and the results are…..that it doesn’t matter.

Of course, I’m kidding a little bit, and we really shouldn’t be reading anything into the results of 16 games.  The Leafs view of goalies is that most of them are unpredictable, and therefore not worth investing assets or committing to one for any length of time, with a few possible exceptions.  16 games isn’t really going to change that, but if you do look at the team since Freddie Andersen left, it bears that out.  (Also, now that I think of it, so does the mercurial play of Freddie Andersen itself).

The point is this: any time you’re record is good and you’ve played half your games with your number three or four goalie, you should be pretty psyched about the possibilities of playing with a healthy roster.

The MVP Factor

Another reason for optimism:  out of 16 games, five were a western road trip, and four of them were a “gauntlet” of having to play four of the best teams in a row.   Those kinds of circumstances won’t often occur, and at the very least they won’t often make up for 56% of your games.

Then there is Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

If this team, playing it’s 4th best goalie, can (more or less) post the exact same record they had at this time last year (a year in which they competed for the Presidents Trophy and came 4th overall) despite Auston Matthews barely contributing, then things look very good indeed.

Think about it.

Last year at this time, the Leafs were ninth.

This year they are tenth.

And they have gotten pretty much zero contribution from their twin Hart Trophy Candidate Attack.

David Kampf leads the Toronto Maple Leafs in 5v5 goals on November 15th.

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have combined for five 5v5 goals.

Timothy Liljegren, Zach Aston-Resse, Denis Malgin, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok and Pierre Engvall.

That is a list of players who have the same or more goals at 5v5 than Auston Matthews.

Over the course of time, Auston Matthews doesn’t really add that much to the power-play above and beyond what the best players on the other teams do.

His value, what makes him more valuable than every single other player in the NHL, is that he consistently can be counted on to lead the league in 5v5 scoring. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).

For the last three seasons Auston Matthews has 31 more 5v5 goals than any other player.

Approximately 90% of the other players in the NHL have less 5v5 goals in the last three seasons than the margin by which Auston Matthews has outscored the second highest 5v5 goal scorer.

That is insanity.

Auston Matthews isn’t scoring, and the Leafs are still doing OK.   That’s the biggest thing that other team’s should fear.

But the other thing is that Marner also isn’t producing like an MVP.

And he usually does, and will for sure do so later this season.

To have a decent record when your two MVP level players are not giving you what you’ve come to expect, is a very good sign for the future.  It is perfectly reasonable to expect the Leafs two MVPs to start playing like MVPs, and so the rest of the NHL should probably be at least a little bit scared of what this roster can do at full power.