Toronto Maple Leafs: The NHL Standings and Predictions 1 Month In
The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a good start to the new NHL season.
Though they got off to a rocky start, losing to several of the NHL’s worst teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs have since beaten three of the best teams in the league, and now have a respectable 7-4-3 record.
It’s a better record than it looks.
The Leafs have won just a single game all season where they didn’t significantly outplay their opponent.
David Kampf leads the team in 5v5 goals, while Auston Matthews has posted great 5v5 numbers, but the goals haven’t gone in for him yet.
In 14 games, they’ve played three different goalies, gone to 4th stringer Erik Kallgren six times, and the rest of the league should be very concerned about a team that wins over 60% of its points under these circumstances.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Rest of the NHL
Things are going well for my pre-season predictions.
Many thought that the Senators would take steps toward, or even pass the Leafs this year. I laughed in the faces of everyone who said that, and it turns out I was right to do so. The Senators have lost six in a row and are horrible, which was easy to predict, since they have terrible defense and no depth, and don’t have the star power to make up for it.
They were never making up the 42 points by which the Leafs were superior last season.
The Devils are off to a great start, and I predicted they would win their division.
If the playoffs started today, Tampa, New York and Pittsburgh would all miss them. Obviously the early season has some whacky results, and I would expect them all to do better.
The Penguins and Rangers are both ranked in the top 5 of 5v5 Team Expected Goals Percentage, which is the best indicator of future results. It is doubtful both teams will continue to post bad results.
The Avalanche are getting great results, but their underlying numbers are bad. It’s still early season, and the sample size is small, but it’s something to watch.
The Jets are also getting great results with bad underlying numbers.
Tampa, the Oilers, Avalanche, Blues and Islanders are all ranked 18th or worse by expected goals.
Vegas, Jersey and Boston somewhat deserve their great records so far. Dallas, the Islanders and Winnipeg don’t. In my Western Preview, I seem to have been right about Seattle and Vegas.
A month in, a few things are clear: Boston and Vegas are still contenders, despite many people trying to write them off due to bad results last year. The people who thought the Flames were the best Canadian team were hilarious a month ago and have been proven wrong.
Next. Turns Out This Was the Correct Strategy. dark
A month into the NHL season, it’s obvious that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the best Canadian team by a mile, and adjusted for the weirdness of some of their results, probably the NHL’s best team. Objectively, and with a straight face, I am telling you that they should be considered the most likely team to win the Stanley Cup right now.