The Toronto Maple Leafs might change coaches.
I don’t think the Toronto Maple Leafs should fire Sheldon Keefe, but I think that they probably will.
There just isn’t that many things they can do to change things up, and so firing a coach, that old NHL Classic, remains on the table.
But if that happens, let’s hope the Leafs aren’t stupid enough to hire Barry Trotz.
That would be a very bad idea.
Why? Because it’s the name being pushed by the laziest media market ever. “Hey, I’ve heard of this guy, make him the new coach.”
It’s as predictable as it is boring.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Barrie Trotz
In the NHL, if you are out of ideas, hire a veteran coach who has been fired by half the league. (OK Just three teams with Trotz, but you get the point).
Trotz is 60 years old, which is fine. It shouldn’t disqualify him from employment or anything. But we should remember that he was just 38 when he was hired to be an NHL coach.
Keefe was slightly older, but not by much. The Leafs want to have the next Barry Trotz, they shouldn’t be interested in the old one, who took 18 years to win a Stanley Cup and who’s best days are likely in the past.
If it isn’t Keefe, hire someone else who has never coached in the NHL. The fresh ideas will help more than a great reputation.
Oh, but Trotz won the Cup!
Winning is fluky. The year the Capitals won the Cup, they had the worst team they iced for probably a decade prior. They didn’t win because Trotz was suddenly a genius coach – he coached them for three years before they won.
Taking someone else’s winner is the NHL’s default move. Completely ignore the context of when he won, just remember that he did. So he’s bound to again, right? He’s coached for 25 seasons, and has one Cup.
That’s only six season away from winning one by default.
For the combined first three seasons of Trotz’s New York Islanders tenure, his team was ranked 2nd in the NHL in save percentage (5v5). The standings reflected this, and Trotz was a genius.
Last year, doing nothing differently, and arguably with his best NYI roster yet, his team missed the playoffs, and then Trotz got fired. His team had the 2nd highest save percentage in the NHL, and their play was very lucky, finishing with the 5th highest PDO in the NHL.
What more could he have done?
They were just one of two teams to finish top 16 in PDO and miss the playoffs.
This anecdote is meant to illustrate the mercurial nature of the NHL standings. At 5v5, the Islanders performed about as good as it’s possible to, at least from a “results” perspective, and they still missed the playoffs.
Their coach got fired.
And now he’s the most in-demand coach in the NHL. Doesn’t this make a case that this is all reputation based, and that none of it has to do with strategy or anything else that might actually affect the team?
Trotz, or whoever else, will come in and get the benefit of an extremely unlucky team in the short-term that is reverting to the norm.
But Trotz is a defensive specialist. Supposedly, at least. He is a grinding, old-school coach and his style won’t fit the Toronto Maple Leafs. At least by reputation. (Keep in mind that Mike Babcock had the same reputation, but actually coached the Leafs to a much more offensive minded style than Keefe does).
Reputation doesn’t give enough credit to the adaptability of a career NHL coach. Trotz would be a fine coach, but not necessarily the best match. It still wouldn’t matter. NHL coaches don’t differ all that much.
I don’t really think coaches make too much of a difference, ultimately, at the NHL level where innovation rarely occurs, it’s about the voice in the room. If it goes out, get a new one. Coaches are more like lightbulbs at this level than anything else.
If the Leafs hire Trotz, it will be a perfectly normal, respectable decision. I would question why the team feels it needs to start listening to the people who have never tried to understand what it is they’re doing, and only wanted to complain about it because it was new and scary.
But the main reason I’d avoid Trotz is because Bruce Boudreau is the perfect coach for the Leafs, and if you wait for a while, he’ll likely be available. Sure, he’s older, has been fired by more teams, and is just as much of a reputation guy. But he’s also the coolest guy in the NHL, and you should always hire that guy if you can. Besides, he’s known for his offense, and that, at least, fits the team.
Still though, I’d rather just stick with Keefe.