10 Reasons Why the Maple Leafs Need to Ignore Critics, Do Nothing

The Toronto Maple Leafs are having some early season troubles, but honestly, this is the time to relax, buckle down, and try harder.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have no reason to change their coach, even though he might end up playing the role of sacrificial lamb.  They certainly do not need to change their GM or President, and the sooner they lock them both up long term, the better.

The Leafs are not in trouble.

Not even close.

Jake Muzzin went down. Based on the quotes from the players, he probably isn’t going to be playing again.  The team is secretive, but the players talked about him like he was done, so he probably is.  That is an emotional thing to happen to a team.   They are humans, it effects them.

A five game road trip at the start of the year is a big deal too.

Timothy Liljegren hasn’t played.  He was quite literally their best defenseman last year.

Eric Kallgren, probably not an NHL goalie, has played three times so far.

The team’s starting goalie played once.

And let’s keep in mind that outside of the last two October’s, this team has won roughly 75-80% of the points available to them over the last year and a half.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Going to Be Fine

The Leafs have the 30th ranked shooting percentage at 5v5. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

That is all that is wrong with them.

The Leafs were the better team in six of their ten games so far.  They are 3-2-1 in the games in which they should have won.  That is unlucky.

The Leafs were the worse team in four of their losses, so let’s break them down:

Montreal: Toronto easily wins this game most of the time.

San Jose: Coin flip OT Loss, the Leafs usually would win.

Dallas: a one-goal game that could have gone either way.

Vegas: This was their worst game, and it still could have gone their way.

I point this out not to make excuses, but because good teams (i.e teams with elite players) often win games they don’t deserve to. The Leafs won over 70% of the points available to them last year, and they didn’t “deserve” to win 70% of the time, but having Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares lets you win  sometimes when you probably shouldn’t.

Here are reasons that no one should panic.  Everything on this list is an anomaly that will, while currently contributing to the club’s record, will not last and therefore can be ignored.  When, inevitably, this stuff balances out, the Leafs will once again be a top team:

• 0 and 4 in games they didn’t deserve to win.  They usually squeak out a win or two.
• 7 of 10 games have been one-goal games, their record is 3-4.  Given their roster, that is unlikely to continue to be the case.
• 7th worst 5v5 results in the NHL.  Does anyone think that will continue? Give me a break.
• They have the 4th least 5v5 goals in the NHL.
• Their Expected Goals rating says they should be the 11th best 5v5 team (not bad considering  half their games were played on a single road trip) but they are under .500 at 5v5, which is clearly an unlucky result.
• They have been forced to play Eric Kallgren three times.
• Worth repeating: Timothy Liljegren was their best defenseman last year , he hasn’t played.
• The Leafs have been outscored at 5v5 with Auston Matthews on the ice.
• They have been destroyed 12-6 with Morgan Rielly on the ice.  Even if he is bad defensively, is not that bad.  That will even out.  He’s a positive Expected Goals player posting a 33% Real Goals rating.  That is mathematically unlikely and will even out.
• Matthews has 1 goal and is shooting 2.78% at 5v5 vs 16% for his career.

Ultimately, Auston Matthews currently has a PDO of 95 with a nearly 100% chance of that rising to 100 over time.  Matthews on-ice shooting percentage is under 6% while his on-ice save percentage is under .900.

Oh, and David Kampf has 3 5v5 goals.  Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Robertson combine for two.

When you consider that, after all this stuff, Sheldon Keefe has his team at a .500 record (4-4-2) he should probably be closer to wining the Jack Adams than being fired. The Toronto Maple Leafs are fine.