Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Was Always This Good

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares to what was, at the time, the most expensive and best player to ever hit  unrestricted free-agency in the NHL’s modern era.

The Toronto Maple Leafs made John Tavares their captain and he scored a career high 47 games in his debut season in the blue and white.

Tavares has played 286 career games for the Leafs, and has 281 points.

Those are impressive numbers, especially since Tavares plays on the second line and is not the Leafs first or second option on the power-play.

John Tavares has been worth every penny the Leafs signed him for, and more.  Though some people are quick to criticize the Leafs for this deal, you won’t find anyone who understands the rarity or importance of elite players who thinks so.

Simply put, the value of star players in the NHL is such that you cannot really overpay one.  The only risks to the Tavares deal are on the back-end as he ages, but elite player tend to avoid decline much longer than other player.

Tavares, who was never fast to start with, and who isn’t small and who don’t play an overly physical game, has a profile that suggest he’ll age gracefully.   So far, so good. (Note this was scheduled ahead of last night’s game, so does not include any  reference to it).

John Tavares and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Tavares had a great year last season.

He finished just shy of 30 goals, and averaged just under a point per game, finishing with 76 in 79. (naturalstattrick.com).

The media acted like he had a down year, but they were wrong to do so.  The media tends to go strictly by results, and so you can understand why they were so quick to knock Tavares, even if it was done largely out of ignorance.

Tavares Expected Goals Percentage last year was 54.09%.  That means that he not only won his minutes, but he won them significantly.  That is a star-level number.

Out of his four seasons with the Leafs, it’s his second highest posted Expected Goals rating.

Unfortunately for Tavaers, his on-ice save percentage dipped below 90% for just the second time in his career.  This ultimately led to him losing his minutes (by four goals) and starting a false narrative about his effectiveness. 

Such are the value of advanced statistics, that you can easily identify how a league-wide media-driven narrative is silly and based on results, not underlying numbers.  If you care who won, pay attention to results.  If you care who will win, pay attention to the underlying numbers.

Tavares recently hit 900 points for his career, and he’s already top 50 in Toronto Maple Leafs all-time scoring. He remains one of the best, if not the absolute best, second line centre in the NHL.

His hot start (3 goals, 7 points, 56% Corsi, 56% XGoals is absolutely fantastic, but it’s really just a continuation of what he was doing last year.  One thing making him look better so far? His on-ice save percentage is at 96% even though nothing he does really affects it one way or the other.