The Toronto Maple Leafs were expected to have one of the NHL’s best fourth lines this season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs brought in Nicholas Aube-Kubal, with the hopes that he could have more to give with a better opportunity.
They brought in Zach Aston-Reese on a PTO to see if they could capture a $2 million dollar player for half price – a play driving, solid defender, who can provide toughness on the fourth line and win his minutes.
They demoted David Kampf, ostensibly because they can’t trade a fourth line Alex Kerfoot.
And for the first two games, it has not worked like they hoped.
Now, it’s only two games, and these guys will likely be much better going forward, but so far, they would have been better off with Kyle Clifford, Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds.
(Note this was written and scheduled ahead of last night’s game, so forgive me if they each had a hattrick or something crazy last night).
Toronto Maple Leafs 4th Line Has Stunk So Far
The best vs the worst 4th line in hockey probably only accounts for a win or two over the course of a season, but those two or four points could be the difference between starting the playoffs against Tampa Bay or a much worse team, so it pays to have a quality 4th line, even if it’s not exactly a priority.
Against Montreal, Montreal had 10 shot attempts with Aube-Kubal on the ice, while the Leafs had 3. It lead to him posting a terrible 8% Expected Goals rating.
Overall, after two games, here are the stats.
The three members of the Leafs 4th line all currently have a puck-possession percentage between 32% and 36% that is absolutely brutal.
Shots and scoring chances range from the mid 30% to the mid 40s. Dangerous chances are Caps/Habs 6 Leafs 1.
All of the Leafs other nine forwards have Expected Goals ratings 54% or higher. The highest fourth line Expected Goals rating after two games is 26%.
To be fair, these are three guys who never played together, two of whom are changing teams. They also don’t get a ton of ice time. (stats from naturalstattrick.com).
But still, the drop off between the first three Toronto Maple Leafs lines and the last one has been tremendous.
There is definitely enough upside in Aston-Reese and Aube-Kabel to give them a little rope, but with players like Nick Robertson, Alex Steeves, Pontus Holmberg, Kyle Clifford, Joey Anderson, Wayne Simmonds and Adam Gaudette all waiting in the wings, they won’t get much.