The Toronto Maple Leafs Biggest Problem Right Now

The Toronto Maple Leafs have looked OK to start the season.

Through two games they have a 1-1 record, and both games could have gone either way.  The Leafs are yet to play a complete game, though they have looked really, really good at times.

Against Montreal, the Leafs dominated periods 1 and 2, only to let their foot off the gas in the third. Montreal scored twice at 5v5 to win the game.

Despite not playing a great game, the Leafs still had to go 0-4 on the power-play, miss a penalty shot, hit the post on a breakaway and have Auston Matthews fail to score on five shots.  Those aren’t excuses for losing, however. What they are are reasons why the Leafs will usually win.  In close games, their league-best power-play, and their 60 goal scorer will usually be the difference.

Against Washington, the Leafs played a much better game overall.

They were the better team for most of the night, then they shut down the Capitals completely in the third period and barely allowed them a shot for over 10 minutes.  The Caps pressed at the end, but the result was never really in doubt.

The Leafs finished the game with 60% of the shots, 56% of the scoring chances and 58% of the expected goals.  That’s a good game.

But their biggest problem? Alex Kerfoot displacing David Kampf.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Biggest Problem So Far

Last year, the Leafs used the combo of Kampf/Engvall (usually with Mikheyev) to shut-down opposing offenses.

The line played the toughest minutes in the league last year, and despite constantly going out against top opposition and starting a lot of their shifts in the defensive end, they came out on top in terms of goals and expected goals.

A star-free defensive line that can play against top lines and win allows the team to then get favorable matchups with their best players.

One reason the Leafs had such a strong home record last year was that with last change they were able to create the kinds of favorable matchups that tend to be impossible in the NHL. (Because it’s pretty rare defensive players can actually play such tough minutes and win. It’s usually far better to throw first line vs first line, second line vs second line etc).

This year, as long as Alex Kerfoot is on the Leafs but not on the second line, the Leafs can’t use their shut-down line.

This is because Kerfoot’s salary is $3.5 million and if they start playing him on the 4th line they won’t be able to trade him.

So they have played him on the third line, moving Kampf down the the fourth.

This takes away the teams best strategy, and it steals the third line’s identity, and pretty much makes two lines useless. With Kerfoot, the third line can’t be the shutdown line it was last year.  The fourth line can’t fill that role because they don’t get enough ice time.

So instead of having two first lines that get easy minutes (relatively, and at home) a shut-down line and a line that can provide some kind of offense and at least win their minutes, the Leafs have no identity and no plan.

Robertson and Malgin give the Leafs some depth scoring for a rock-bottom price.  If either is a real top-six forward, then Kerfoot has to go. It’s just that simple.  Having no choice but to use Kerfoot (who is a really good and underrated player) on the 3rd line sends ripples throughout the lineup that destroy a lot of what makes the Leafs so good.

It’s early and these things tend to work themselves out, but this is clearly the main issue for the Toronto Maple Leafs early in this season.  Still, so far, the Leafs two bottom lines have more less been terrible.