The Toronto Maple Leafs Stayed the Course

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The Toronto Maple Leafs “stayed the course” and now there’s another seven months until the playoffs start. Does anyone care about the regular season anymore? Should they?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are about to embark on another regular season with the same core of players who have lost six times in a row in the first round of the NHL playoffs.

Now the first thing I should probably point out here is that the definition of insanity is not doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result. That little cliché isn’t the definition of anything, and in fact comes from a Narcotics Anonymous pamphlet printed up in the 1970s.

Expecting different results with the same team is actually not insane at all – it’s the mathematically correct thing to do.

The reason?

This team has never lost for the reasons it’s critics have put forward. They have only lost when their biggest strength failed them. That is no reason to change. They didn’t, and we are lucky they didn’t, because most teams would have.

Let’s dig into the details behind this hypothesis I am putting forward.

May 14, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly . Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

Toronto Maple Leafs and the NHL Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs biggest critics say that they have too much money tied into too few players, that they haven’t balanced their roster, and that have gone cheap on goalies, and that their team isn’t physical enough.

Let’s ignore the first three of the Leafs six playoff losses, because their best players were on entry-level contracts, and the team lost to Boston twice in game 7, and Washington once in game 6 – all three series were examples of a young team over-achieving.

The Leafs are absolved of criticism for those losses.

The next three are tricky, because the Leafs played well enough to win each series but still lost.

The thing is though, how they lost does matter, and not just that they did.

Columbus

Columbus set an NHL record for save percentage in a playoff series, as their goalies saved more than 98% of the 5v5 shots the Leafs took over five games.

The Leafs goalies were great in this series, and their defense was great. Even their offense was great, creating only slightly less chances per minute than they did in the regular season where they were a top offensive team.

The Leafs biggest strength failed them.

But they were not pushed around, they weren’t outworked, and the other team wasn’t able to prevent them from creating scoring chances – they just got goalied. It happens.

Montreal

Against Montreal, the Leafs blew a 3-1 lead, but Auston Matthews couldn’t shoot the puck, and John Tavares played less than two minutes in the entire series. Still, the Leafs were the better team in three of the four games they lost.

It’s worth pointing out that they lost game six after storming back from a two goal deficit, then outshot Montreal 12-0 in overtime, before an 80 foot knuckle-puck beat Jack Campbell, directly after Montreal was not called for elbowing Alex Galchenyuk in the head.

Again you can’t blame this loss on roster construction, goaltending or any of the other criticisms levelled against the Leafs. Take the two top centres off any team and see what happens.

May 14, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Jack Campbel . Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa

The Leafs were the better team. They won four games, one of which didn’t count. Then in game seven, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner played the best game of their lives, only it was countered by an equally great game by Andrei Vasilevskiy.

In order to lose, the Leafs had to get screwed in game six, then get beaten in a best vs best matchup vs one of the all-time best players in NHL history.

I hate that they lost, but in this series they proved every single thing their critics said about them wrong. They were a team built for the playoffs, they were dangerous, deep, physical, they never quit, and the bottom line is they were playing against the 2 x Stanley Cup Champions and they were the better team, regardless of who ultimately won.

I wish they won, but there is no shame in losing when you outplay the greatest team of your generation.

A Conclusion You Will Hate

The Toronto Maple Leafs have played 19 playoff games over the last three seasons, and they have managed to be the best team by Expected Goals Percentage in 15 of those games.

Expected Goals Percentage is the best indicator of results. To lose three series, over 19 games, when you were the best team in 15 of those games is so improbable, so unlikely, that the Leafs shouldn’t face any criticism for failing to advance.

This is why the team didn’t fire their GM, Coach, President nor did they trade any of their best players. The reason the Toronto Maple Leafs are back again for another 82 games with the exact same team that has lost six years in a row, in the first round, is because every single way that we have to evaluate hockey players and games says that this is a team that should win, can win and will win.

I for one, look forward to another 82 games of greatness, followed by two weeks of anxiety. I hope they win, but the fact is, even in the best possible scenario, they will begin the first round with a 30% chance of losing.

Next. Grading Last Year's Roster. dark

They built a team worthy of being a champion, and the funs comes in seeing that translate from theory to reality. I hope it works out, but the fact that it might not is the only reason we even care. So let’s settle in and try to enjoy some hockey. This team is great, we are lucky to be able to watch it, so let’s have some fun.

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