Toronto Maple Leafs 2022-23 Top 10 Prospects List
Toronto Maple Leafs Draft Strategy
It takes a while for non-blue-chip prospects to develop. Additionally, the Leafs don’t draft safe picks.
They don’t take players they know will make the NHL on the fourth line or as role players.
The Leafs draft with the idea that non-star players are available, for free, whenever you want one, in basically unlimited quantities.
There is no point in burning a draft pick on a player who lacks the upside to be a star player, because you can sign Frederik Gauthier, or his rough equivalent, whenever you want. You don’t have to draft him.
Gauthier, you may remember, was responsible for the best article this site ever put out, about 100 feet tall, and was inexplicably drafted in the first round. Whenever people complain about Kyle Dubas, think about that.
The Leafs do not draft for size, defense, toughness, grinding, or NHL readiness.
The Leafs take swings on longshots. They draft talented, toolsy, players with high upsides. They don’t hesitate to draft small players. They especially look for intelligence, sometimes called “hockey sense,” because that can often compensate for talent in ways that nothing else can.
Eventually, if given enough time, this strategy will prove to be revolutionary. In a cap league, there isn’t much that is more valuable than a player who can contribute to your team in the NHL on an entry-level contract.
The Leafs will eventually get lucky and this strategy will pay off. They haven’t taken a star player outside the first round since Tomas Kaberle was drafted in 1996. Whether it’s Nick Robertson or Matthews Knies, that streak should end soon.
Last Year’s Top 10 Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects
Last Year’s top ten prospects feature 2 players who have graduated to the NHL and are no longer prospects. Click here to check out the full article. Otherwise, here is the top 10 from last year:
10. Mikko Kokkonen
9. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
8. Ty Voit
7. Mikhail Abramov
6. Matthew Knies
5. Timothy Liljegren
4. Topi Niemela
3. Rodion Amirov
2. Rasmus Sandin
1. Nick Robertson
The previous year before last, the Top 10 Prospects list we made heading into the 2020-21 shortened season, looked like this:
10. Mikko Kokkonen 9. Filip Hallander 8. Justin Brazeau 7. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 6. Joseph Duszak 5.Mikhail Abramov 4. Rodiaon Amirov 3. Timothy Liljegren 2. Rasmus Sandin 1. Nick Robertson
The Honorable Mentions
While the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have the blue-chip star quality in their prospect system that the Anaheim Mighty Ducks or LA Kings currently have, they do have a ton of players with enough NHL upside that they don’t all fit in a top ten list.
Everyone of the Leafs top 10 prospects is either on the verge of becoming an NHL regular or has the upside to possibly become a star. Not a single one of them is a blue-chip guarantee, but those are rare when your team isn’t finishing last on an annual basis.
Kyle Dubas has overseen the last five drafts.
He has drafted in the first round just twice:
- 2018, 29th, Rasmus Sandin. Graduated to the NHL, no longer a prospect.
- 2020, 15th, Rodion Amriov, one of the team’s top prospects.
The Leafs have traded three picks, but they made up for it with smart second round selections. Nick Robertson was the youngest player in his draft, would have been picked in the first round of the 2020 draft if he’d been born a few days later, and is easily the equivalent of a mid first rounder.
They were able to trade their pick this season because the player they wanted – Fraser Minten – was likely going to be available in the second round, and it turned out he was.
The last pick was in 2020 where everyone was drafting off extremely limited information. In that draft they got Ty Voit, who is also probably the equivalent of a mid first round pick today. Don’t rate Voit that highly? The Leafs also have Knies, and he’s definitely a first round equivalent at this point.
When coming up with this list, we tried to rank the players based on a very un-scientific combination of what we think their upside is and what we think their odds of becoming an NHL player are.
For example, I think Semyon Der-Arguchintsev has a ton of talent, but now he’s 22 and it’s been five years since he was drafted. He still has a high ceiling, but the probability of him hitting it is getting lower. He likely won’t be an NHL regular, but if he does, it will likely be because he broke out and became an unexpected star.
Pontus Holmberg, on the other hand, is likely to play in the NHL this year. He’s the same age and comes from the same draft. He’s less talented overall, but more consistent. He could be a useful NHL player, but won’t be a star.
Neither player makes the top ten, but it should give you some insight into how we rank the players.
Here are the Toronto Maple Leafs Top Prospect Honorable Mentions:
Goalies: Joseph Woll, Erik Kallgren (he’s 25, but if we’re including Woll, who is 24…), Dennis Hildeby.
Defense: Mac Hollowell, Alex Rindell, William Villeneuve, Filip Kral (All four should be on the Marlies this year).
Forwards: Nick Abruzzese, Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Pavel Gogolev, Pontus Holberg, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Mikhail Abramov, Ryan Tverberg, and if you want to be generous, Denis Malgin and Joey Anderson.
10. Mikko Kokkonen
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 5’11” 198 lbs.
Position: Defense
Shoots: Left
Draft: 3rd Round, 84th Overall 2019
This is not a recording.
For the 3rd straight season, we have Mikko Kokkonen coming in at #10 on the Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects List.
The reason: we just really love him, but we only kind of believe in him!
Just kidding. Kokkonen is a near lock to eventually be an NHL regular, and he has some upside, but he’s really more of an all-round impressive player, rather than one who blows you away with a crazy shot or top-flight speed.
Smart.
Safe.
Intelligent.
Those are the buzzwords you hear when you hear about Mikko Kokkonen.
Strangely, he played 11 games in the AHL two seasons ago, and scored 7 points. All reports were that he was very impressive. Then last year he was back in Europe.
He is 21 now, and should play this season on the Marlies blue-line and be one of their best players. He likely will make the NHL sooner than later, and smart players have a tendency to surprise.
9. Alex Steeves
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 5’11
Position: C
Shoots: Right
Draft: Undrafted
In March of 2021, the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Notre Dame star and free-agent Alex Steeves to a three-year entry-level contract.
Steeves was undrafted and went to play college hockey in Notre Dame. He was a significant UFA near the trade deadline in 2021 and the Leafs were the team that signed him.
It was the most hyped UFA signing of a college player by the Leafs since Tyler Bozak a decade ago, and if Steeves ends up half as good as Bozak, I think they’ll be very happy with their signing.
Steeves doesn’t really have any star potential, but he makes this list because he can play in the NHL right now. He’s fast and he can check and play defense, and at the NHL level he might score a little bit.
He goes to the net, grinds, and competes like an animal. Maybe, there is like, a tiny, tiny chance that he’s a late bloomer and ends up being some kind of 25 goal scorer mid-range almost-star. It’s pretty unlikely, but I can definitely see him as like a fan-favorite, poor-man’s Darcy Tucker, if I squint.
Maybe in the old NHL where you needed to be 6’3 to play on the fourth line, Steeves wouldn’t have made it. But in today’s NHL, he might be the kind of zippy, annoying to play against, fourth liner who can chip in with some offense in a limited role.
Maybe one day he is solid enough defensively that he can work his way into a bigger role, but it’s doubtful. Normally I wouldn’t put anyone without star potential on this list, but Steeves could beat out Joey Anderson, Pontus Holmberg, or maybe even Aube-Kubal for a job on the fourth line this year.
8. Roni Hirvonen
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5’9 176 lbs.
Position: Centre
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd round, 59th overall, 2020
The Captain of Team Finland’s most recent entry into the World Juniors, Hirvonen has played in the Finish Elite League (SM LIGA) for the past four seasons.
He is back there again this year, and has already started his season. He is not at the Leafs training camp, and so likely won’t be breaking into the NHL, at the earliest, for two more years. When his team’s season finishes, he’ll likely play some Marlies games near the end of the year, at least, the Leafs tend to make that happen when they can.
Hirvonen is definitely going to make the NHL. He is a great two-way player in Finland, and should end up as a decent middle-of-the-lineup NHL player. He is mainly known for his effort and competitive nature, which is probably why he’s the captain of Finland’s Junior team and their 1C.
He does have offense in his game, but he’s been playing in a pro league as an undrafted player, and so he hasn’t been a top centre or the the main offensive option on his team, so what he’ll score like in the NHL is anyone’s guess.
As with most Leafs prospects, especially the ones on this list, he is known to play a smart and intelligent game, and be an extremely hard worker. Due to that, an unexpected star turn is not outside the realm of possibility.
Smart player, quick, doesn’t quit. That describes a lot of Leafs recent prospects: Sandin, Robertson, Amirov, Steeves and more.
I am excited for Roni Hirvonen to come to the AHL so that we can get a better look at his game. I couldn’t have cared less about this year’s World Junior tournament that was held in August, so I missed a chance to see Hirvonen first hand, but by all reports, he was great.
7. Nick Moldenhauer
Age: 18
Height/Weight: 5’10 170 lbs
Position: Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Draft: 3rd Round 95th overall, 2022
Nick Moldenhauer was taken by the Leafs this past summer in the NHL Entry Draft, with their third pick.
The Leafs had the 79th pick, saw that the player they wanted wasn’t going to get taken yet, and turned that pick into two later picks: 95 and 135.
Since the 79th pick is a longshot to make it, might as well get two prospects, and one of those is Nick Moldenhauer, a right winger from the USHL who plays for the Chicago Steel.
If you know about Moldenhauer, it’s probably because of the insane story about his injury that Scott Wheeler wrote about in the Athletic , which is paywalled and which I can’t link to.
According to Wheeler, Moldenhauer was cut along his jawline with a skate in his first game after returning from being out two months with mono. This cut was very bad, but it turned out that it had also hit his carotid artery and required a blood transfusion.
Like pretty much every single player on this list, Moldenhauer lacks the kind of jaw-dropping skill that would make him a top pick, but he is a very good skater, a good puck handler, has a decent shot and – this will shock you – the best part of his game is his situational awareness and positioning…..aka……his hockey sense…..aka he’s a very intelligent player.
The Leafs have a type.
So far there are four players on this list: Kokkonen, Steeves, Hirvonen and Moldenhauer. They are all characterized by their determination and intelligence.
I ranked Moldenhauer highest out of the four (possibly because he’s the newest, but also) because I think his back-to-back injuries and late season breakout suggest a player who fell in the draft but could have gone higher if he was healthy.
The pre-draft rankings further this hypothesis, and so I think the Leafs might have scored some value with this pick.
6. Fraser Minten
Age: 18
Height/Weight: 6’1 185 LBS
Position: Centre
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd round 38th overall 2022
The Leafs were comfortable trading down 13 slots in the draft in order to select Minten. This allowed them to get rid of Petr Mrazek for (basically) free, and to add another top prospect to the system.
I’ll give you two guesses what words come up when you google Fraser Minten.
If you guessed “Intelligence” and “hard worker” get yourself a doughnut.
Minten has so far impressed at his first training camp. John Tavares mentioned how smart he is. The coach talked maturity and hard work. The phrase “extremely competitive” came up.
It’s kind of funny how Kyle Dubas is pegged as this silly inexperienced moron who only wants high-flying 5’6 players who do trick shots, when in reality he’s built this stable of intelligent hard-workers with generally strong all-round skills.
I don’t think anyone, even the most optimistic Toronto Maple Leafs fan, understands how good this system is going to be at turning out very good NHL players. It would not surprise me at all if every single player on this list turned into an above average NHL player.
Minten is ranked higher than the other four somewhat similar players on this list so far because his shot is NHL quality and he is a very good defensive player. It will never happen, but I bet he could play in the NHL right now.
He’s got upside, but worst case scenario is that Minten is a 20 goal scorer with great underlying numbers playing on an NHL 3rd line.
5. Ty Voit
Age: 19
Height/Weight: 5’9 150lbs
Position: Centre/ Right Wing
Shoots: Right
Draft: 5th round 153rd overall 2021
The 2021 draft was insane.
Instead of watching a year’s worth of hockey games and crunching scouting reports, NHL teams were left to pretty much guess what players would be good in the future.
To be sure this is pretty much what they do every year, but in 2021 it was even worse.
The 2020 draft was unusual, but it happened at the start of the pandemic and most of the previous season had happened as scheduled.
The 2021 draft featured players who’s draft year was the 2020-21 season, much of which was cancelled, postponed, or played under unusual circumstances.
I am sure that as time goes on, the 2021 draft will feature many more players from the lower rounds who make the NHL and many less from the higher rounds.
An example of how this might play out can be seen in Ty Voit. He didn’t even play in the season he was drafted. The Leafs based their selection on what they saw the previous year.
Voit then rewarded their faith by going from 28 to 80 points while playing in the OHL last year.
He wasn’t even on the Leafs original training camp roster this year, but they brought him in after a few players couldn’t play due to injury. (Assumedly, they don’t want to go over 50 players in camp).
Voit was a late arrival, and the first cut, but don’t let that cloud your view of him as a prospect. He’s a long-term project, and will be back in junior again this year.
But he’s fast, he can score, he isn’t afraid to go to the net or into the corner, and yup, he’s also known as a smart player with a great competitive nature.
I rank Voit much higher than pretty much anyone and the reason is because I saw him play live and I really thought he was great. Perhaps I’m overrating him, but he seems pretty similar in a lot of ways to everyone else on this list, but he seems to have more offensive potential (was 18th in the OHL last year).
I think small players get really underrated, especially when they play centre and almost certainly won’t do so in the NHL. Doubly so when they are small and play like they aren’t.
That said, Voit probably has less chance of making the NHL out of everyone on this list. But if he does make it, it will be as a very unlikely star.
4. Rodion Amirov
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 6′ 167 lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Draft: 1st round 15th overall 2020
The Toronto Maple Leafs made the intelligent, hard-working and talented Amirov their first pick in the 2020 draft, and considering how often the Leafs trade their pick or move down, you have to assume they really, really like him.
Unfortunately, this past year saw Amirov diagnosed with a brain tumor after he was hit in a game and later experienced symptoms of what was thought to be a concussion. We aren’t doctors, so we are ranking him where we would if he was healthy and his future was not uncertain.
Amirov has finished chemotherapy and in this interview he discusses his hope to return to the ice by November. In Kyle Dubas’ press conference at the start of Training Camp, he said (and I’m paraphrasing off of memory) that the Leafs hope to consult with his doctors after he is done chemo and bring him over here to train and play.
That sounds like he could be joining the Marlies when he’s ready, but he also had his loan to the KHL extended (possibly for medical reasons, however), so I don’t think anything is finalized.
The fact is, I have no idea how to evaluate a player in this situation, and I only hope that he recovers and is able to live a long and healthy life.
If Rodian Amirov was healthy, this is where I’d rank him. The Leafs 4th best prospect, down one spot from last year due to the stellar play of Topi Niemella.
Last year when we wrote up his report, we listed some quotes, and I think they’re worth repeating.
Like all Leafs prospects, Amirov is a smart player, but here is a cross section of quotes from his various scouting reports: “One of the best two-way players eligible for the 2020 draft” – Dobber “The strength of Amirov’s game is in his ability to protect the puck and change directions with control,” – Scott Wheeler, the Athletic “Some of the best skill in the draft,” -Chris Peters, ESPN “Elite Stickhandler,” – Steve Koumiamos, the Draft Analyst.
We hope the best for Amirov, but his hockey career seems unimportant at this moment. If he is healthy and can still live a full life, that’s a great outcome. If he ever plays in the NHL, it will be one of the most inspiring stories in the history of the league.
3. Topi Niemela
Age: 20
Height/Weight: 5′ 11″ 169 lbs
Position: Defense
Shoots: Right
Draft: 3rd Round, 64th Overall 2020
This might be the Toronto Maple Leafs best chance to land a superstar from a lower round. Topi Niemala is a smart, all-round, two-way defenseman who is (I bet you can’t guess) an EXTREMEMLY HARD WORKER WHO IS VERY SMART.
I wouldn’t date a girl who didn’t like the Smiths, and Kyle Dubas wouldn’t draft a player who wasn’t a genius with the dedication to his craft of a blue-collar Woody Guthrie fan.
Even for the Leafs, Niemela’s brain stands out, as Corey Pronman once remarked that “it’s his brain that drives his value.” (which was a quote we used in last year’s article, which came from the Athletic, but which we can’t link to because of paywalls).
Last year Niemela added some offense to his game, and that only serves to make him a better prospect. Playing with the same team as the year before, he went from 4 points in 15 games to 32 in 48.
That’s a great jump, but it’s not why he’s so hyped up. The reason for his hype is that he can control the flow and drive play when he’s on the ice.
The only reason he’s a 3rd rounder with a longshot chance for stardom and not a first round pick with stardom nearly assured is his size.
There just aren’t that many NHL defenseman under 6′ and those who are are usually quite a bit thicker than Niemela, who isn’t even cracking 170.
Jared Spurgeon is two inches shorter and almost the same weight. He drives play and puts up good even strength offensive numbers. Spurgeon is small and quick, but he’s not the fastest guy in the league and doesn’t have the hardest shot. Like Niemella, his success comes from his brain – Spurgeon is known to have some of the best “Hockey IQ” in the game.
Jared Spurgeon, named captain of MIN, is a top two-way defenceman who has been consistently elite for years. He's also one of the top goal scoring blueliners in the league. #MNWild pic.twitter.com/PljW41ej7x
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 3, 2021
Topi Niemella is a similar player, two inches taller, a bit thinner, and who was also a late round pick. If Niemella becomes even 10% of a Jared Spurgeon, the Leafs will be happy. I include the JFresh card here to show that there are small, right handed, intelligent play drivers who have been successful in the NHL.
Niemella will likely come play for the Marlies after the Liga season ends, and I think we’ll see him on the Toronto Maple Leafs at some point next season. The Leafs have no reason to rush him, but he’s clearly going to be an NHL Player, and he might just become a top pairing guy if he can put on enough weight to avoid getting constantly injured.
2. Matthew Knies
Age: 20 (in October)
Height/Weight: 6’3 210 LBS
Position: LW
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd Round. 57th overall, 2021
A 6’3 skilled forward who can dangle, shoot and who thinks the game as well as any other player on this list? Who, at least potentially, could use his size and determination to become a power-forward, or, since he’s such a good passer, a hybrid-type player who can hit and score and drive the net, while also setting up his teammates?
Sign me up.
The reason Matthews Knies was available in the 2nd round is because of his skating. If he was a smooth skating speedster, he probably would have been a top ten pick.
He was well on his way to being a first rounder anyways, but in his draft year, his second with the Tri City Storm of the USHL, he scored three less points playing the same amount of games, but with a bigger role.
Suddenly you have a player who is maybe just big, and taking advantage of not being a focal point in the lineup. He dropped all the way to 57th were the Leafs were only too happy to take advantage.
He is now considered their top prospect by most people. Myself, I prefer Nick Robertson, but you could toss coin – neither is a blue chipper, and either one of them, both of them, or neither of them could become stars. I think people favor Knies because of his size, but Robertson is the better player, he just gets docked for being small.
People complain about Knies’ defense, or say he hurts himself by trying to be too creative, but honestly, if you’re saying those things about a prospect, it’s probably because he isn’t going to get taken in the top five of the draft.
Very few prospects are good at defense. These guys have so much natural talent and have always been the best wherever they go, that most of them haven’t had to focus on that too much.
That’s what the Marlies are for. You can’t learn creativity or intelligence. But if you are creative and intelligent, and you have the talent to score in the NHL, learning defense is fairly easy.
Not quite a power-forward, not quite a finesse player, Knies embodies everything the Leafs look for: intelligence, determination/competitiveness, and talent. Expect him to make his NHL debut later this season, after the trade deadline, and expect him in the NHL permanently some time next season.
1. Nick Robertson
Age: 21
Height/Weight: 5’9 183 lbs
Position: Left Wing
Shoots: Left
Draft: 2nd Round 53rd overall, 2020
This is the third straight year where we have listed Nick Robertson as the Toronto Maple Leafs top prospect.
This year, he gained 20 pounds, and would be a Calder favorite entering the new NHL season, if a) he qualified (he doesn’t) and b) he was guaranteed a job (he’s not).
There will be no Calder for Robertson, but who cares? He’s about to embark on what will be (injuries aside) a very long, very successful NHL career.
The reason he gets ranked ahead of Knies is that I have never seen Knies play in the NHL. I have seen Nick Robertson not only play in the NHL, but I’ve seen him look good while doing it.
Impressive as it was that he played four playoff games the year after being the youngest player in his draft, Robertson probably wasn’t NHL ready when he suited up for four games against Columbus, but the experience was probably amazing for his development.
If you can play four NHL playoff games, score a goal, and avoid embarrassing yourself when you’re just 18, that is extremely impressive, especially for a guy who wasn’t a top ten pick. What’s more impressive is that if he was just a few days younger, he would only have been drafted about a month before he played his first game.
Last season Robertson only played 10 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but he posted a 52% puck possession rating, and an Expected Goals Rating of 49% (which was way over 50% when paired with Tavares).
Those are great numbers for a rookie playing nine minutes per night and alternating between a scoring line and the fourth line. He didn’t score, but the shooting percentage of Robertson and all players who played with him last season was 1.92% which is incredibly unlucky.
The underlying numbers are solid, and the AHL Numbers are spectacular. 16 goals and 28 points in 28 games is amazing production for an AHL rookie.
Additionally, every player in the OHL, since 1990, who scored like Robertson did at the age he did it at, has scored 40 goals in the NHL. Every player.
Nick Robertson will one day score 40 goals in the NHL, for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Next. Grading Every Leafs Player From 2021-22. dark
He will be a star player, and he will most likely play left win on a line with Tavares and Nylander this season, as he graduates from the prospect zone. Nick Robertson was NHL ready last season (as shown by his excellent performance in the NHL) and this year he’ll finally get regular ice time on a scoring line.