Can Timothy Liljegren Be an Elite Player for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

The Toronto Maple Leafs played well enough to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in this spring’s playoffs.

The Toronto Maple Leafs were unable to overcome a series of bad calls and an unbelievable performance in game seven by Andrei Vasilevskiy, but they still get credit for playing well.

While overall I think that Sheldon Keefe is a very good coach, one who will eventually go down as one of the most important coaches in this franchise’s history, his biggest mistake ever was to bench Timothy Liljegren in the playoffs. 

The Leafs ultimately lost by a single goal while their best defenseman sat on the bench.

Timothy Liljegren and the Toronto Maple Leafs

Best defenseman?

You heard me.  Timothy Liljegren scored at the highest rate of anyone on the Leafs other than Morgan Rielly, who he was only slightly behind.  Liljegren’s 5v5 scoring was exceptional in his rookie season – only 17 other NHL defenseman scored at a higher rate. (naturalstattrick.com).

He should be a regular on the 2nd PP unit this year.  He might not be, because the tendency will be to give it to Giordano, but Liljegren is the best suited for the role.

In addition to scoring a ton, Liljegren’s defense was excellent overall.  One on One, down-low in the zone he struggles.  But he’s a smart player who avoids these situations when he can.

Liljegren had the lowest shots-against per 60 minutes of ice-time on the team (other than Giordano, who played the least minutes).

Liljegren had the lowest expected goals and second lowest scoring chances against numbers on the team.

To be clear: the Leafs took the player with whom they had the most success playing, the defenseman who scored the most (almost) and allowed the least, and they benched him after two bad games.

The NHL – both in practice and analysis – is horrible at assessing new players who vary from their expected roles.

If Liljegren had of performed this way after being drafted when the hype was fresh, he’d have been embraced as a future star.  Since his breakout occurred post-hype, and since his success is more subtle (as opposed to clearly defined by goals or points) he hasn’t  done enough to piece the veil of faulty perception.

Which of course is completely ridiculous, but it’s also the world we live in.

I highly doubt Liljegren’s numbers are due to being played on the 3rd pairing , or spending a lot of time with Auston Matthews. I doubt it because other players do those things and don’t post numbers like this.

Now these numbers say he’s among the best in the NHL.  Take them with a grain of salt.  Maybe he isn’t among the best players, but if not, then he was either deployed in a way that squeezed an elite performance out of him, or we don’t know how to measure hockey player’s performance.

It’s clearly not the latter, which means that Liljegren might be the most important player on the roster.  If Liljegren continues his climb and continues to post the kinds of ridiculous numbers he posted last season (numbers which say he’s among the best players in the NHL) then this team is going to take a massive step forward, because a  star player outside their core-four is exactly what they need.

Whether or not Timothy Liljegren can continue his climb to the top of the lineup will, at least partially, determine how much success the Toronto Maple Leafs have this year.