Toronto Maple Leafs: The Panthers Are Going to Drop Like an Anchor

The Toronto Maple Leafs have never won the Atlantic Division.

This current version of the Atlantic has been home to the Toronto Maple Leafs since they left the North East division after the 2013 season.

Since 2013-14, the Bruins, Habs, Panthers, Habs, Lightning, Lightning, Bruins and Panthers have won the division.

In 2021 there was no Atlantic Division, and the Leafs did win the all-Canadian division, but that is hardly the same thing.

This year will be the first year where the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Atlantic, and thankfully, the main reason is that four of the NHL’s best teams are no longer in the division.

Last year the Leafs had to play Tampa, but there was nowhere to hide because Boston and Florida were also among the NHL’s best teams.  This year that won’t be a problem because while Tampa and Toronto will remain among the league’s elite, Boston and Florida will no longer qualify.

The Toronto Maple Leafs Will Surpass the Panthers

The Panthers winning the President’s Trophy, becoming one of the only teams I can remember to take the off-season hype and actually deliver on it. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

The Panthers were second in the NHL in expected-goals percentage last year, slightly ahead of the Leafs.  Like the Leafs, they did not rely on top-shelf goaltending to get by.  The Panthers were 18th in 5v5 save percentage, and as a team who significantly out performed their goalies, they are likely even better than we think.

The problem this year is that they had a bad summer.  The Leafs just left well enough alone, but the Panthers made major changes, most of them bad.

They lost Claude Giroux to free-agency. He was a late acquisition, and they got where they got without him, but regardless, that’s still a big player to lose and not replace.

Matt Tkachuk is coming off a season where he flirted with the Hart Trophy, and is a great addition. Only problem? He likely isn’t quite that good.  He’s good, but he’s not going to consistently post 42 goals and a 100 points.  They traded Huberdeau and Weeger to get him.

That’s a bad trade.  Two star players for one star player.   Tkachuk at last year’s level isn’t enough to off-set losing both those guys.

Their defense – after Forsling and Ekblad – leaves a lot to be desired.  Down to two stars instead of three makes for a huge downgrade.

For comparison’s sake, Mark Staal and Brandon Montour would be in competition with Jordie Benn for 9th on the Leafs depth chart, and they figure to get regular minutes on the Panthers’ weak blue-line.

The Panthers can ice a great top line and a great top pairing.  Their goalies are a question mark (though that is the case with nearly every team), and their team depth depends on how good Carter Verhaeghe actually is.  24 goals and an overall rating of 99 in 5v5 offensive play (@Jfresh) bodes well, but you never know with guys who breakout out of nowhere.

Duclair is out, maybe for the season, and Sam Bennett is not as good as he seemed last year.  Mason Marchment went to Dallas, and as mentioned previously, Claude Giroux is gone.

Huberdeau for Tkachuk is a wash, but the team hasn’t replaced Giroux, Marchment, Duclair or Weeger with similar players.  If Bennet falls off, that’s five star players from last year not on this year’s roster.

Their replacements: Patrick Hornqvist will be joined  Colin White and Nick Cousins.  Yikes.

The Panthers should still make the playoffs, but they aren’t going to be a top  team this year. They are no longer Cup Contenders.  Toronto Maple Leafs? Still the best team in the Atlantic., and entering the 2022-23 NHL season with he league’s best roster and as the Stanley Cup Favorite.