Toronto Maple Leafs: Expect Kerfoot Trade to Make Room for Robertson

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to clear cap space in order to sign Rasmus Sandin.

Alex Kerfoot makes over $3 million per season, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have got his replacement ready and waiting, and making 3 x less money.

It’s not hard to figure out what is going to happen.

Much Like how the Leafs have Jake Muzzin making over $5 million and have Rasmus Sandin ready and waiting to take over for him, the Leafs also have Nick Robertson ready to play left wing on their second line.

Unlike Jake Muzzin who has a No-Trade Clause that requires his consent to move him out of Toronto, the Leafs can move Kerfoot.  He has a limited no trade that requires him to submit a ten-team no-trade list, meaning he can still go to 21 other teams.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Nick Robertson

Nick Robertson was selected in the second round when he was the youngest player in his draft. Had he been just three or four days older, he wouldn’t have been drafted until an entire year later, where he definitely would have gone in the first round.

Amazingly, Robertson played in the NHL just a month after being drafted, despite being the youngest player in his cohort.  He played well too.

Though injuries have slowed his ascent, when he plays, he plays well.  He’s a tenacious player who has a lethal shot.  Every players since 1990 that has scored at the rate he scored at in the OHL has  a 40 goal NHL season to his name, so expectations are, and should be, high.

Last year Robertson scored a point-per-game in the AHL, which at his age is a sign that he’s ready for the NHL. His 16 goals in 28 games were extremely impressive, and he should start this season on the Toronto Maple Leafs second line.

Which means that an Alex Kerfoot trade should be imminent.  (I like Kerfoot, and actually think he’s really under-appreciated, but he’s the obvious odd man out here).

Even though the scoring rate in the AHL last year indicates that Robertson is NHL ready, we don’t actually have to rely on projections because we know for a fact that he is NHL ready due to his performance last year in the NHL.

In his ten games last season, Nick Robertson posted a 52% puck-possession rating, and the Leafs had 53% of the scoring chances and 49% of the shots when he was on the ice.  He posted a 49% expected goals rating, which was 56% when he was with John Tavares (A disastrous run with Kerfoot seems to have torpedoed his limited sample size).

Ultimately, Robertson only played ten games and 100 minutes last year.  He looked good, but it’s hard to tell when you play a limited role and bounce around the lineup.  Overall, the Leafs were outscored 5-1 when he was on the ice, but also shot under 2%, which is unlucky.

56% with Tavares stands out, and so does 13 shots in 97 minutes, which works out to him shooting about as much as  Tavares or Nylander or Bunting.  (stats naturalstattrick.com).

It’s very obvious Nick Robertson is NHL ready, and the Leafs can’t pass up having a rookie’s salary cap hit in a major role, nor can they afford to snub the lethal shot on the second power-play unit.

Expect Nick Robertson to be in the NHL this fall, while Alex Kerfoot is likely to have played his last game for the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Trading Kerfoot makes room to play Robertson and to sign Sandin, so it’s about as obvious of a no-brainer as there has ever been.