6 Burning Questions Ahead of 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs Season
No. 1: Can Either Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov Become a Good Starting Goalie?
For the second offseason in a row, the Toronto Maple Leafs decided to walk away from their starting goalie in free agency and give the reigns to someone new.
Two years ago, the Leafs let Freddie Andersen walk and gave the keys to Jack Campbell and now, Campbell’s been let-go in replace of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov.
If you’re a gambler, the safest bet would be to assume that Samsonov and Murray will falter. However, that doesn’t mean that the Leafs can’t win around them.
Over the past few years, they’ve overcome goaltender troubles and have still been a successful regular season team. Obviously they didn’t win in the playoffs, but it wasn’t because of their goalies.
Personally, I think the two of them will continue to battle it out until the NHL Trade Deadline and then the Leafs ultimately make a move on one of them and acquire another goalie for the stretch.
That’s obviously not the answer Leafs fans want to hear, but I have zero confidence in this tandem, until they prove me wrong.
No. 2: Can Auston Matthews Replicate His 2021-22 Hart Trophy?
Here’s Matthews’ 2021-22 stats:
- 73 games played: 60 goals and 106 points
The easiest assumption is that Matthews regresses after his Hart Trophy season. It seems pretty unlikely that he’ll score 60 goals again and outlast someone like Connor McDavid for the league’s MVP award.
However, I think Matthews is only getting better and he’s only going to improve for the next few seasons.
For example, over the past three years, here’s how he’s progressed in his goal scoring abilities, based off an 82-game pace:
- 2019-20 season: 47 goals in 70 games (55-goal pace)
- 2020-21 season: 41 goals in 52 games (65-goal pace)
- 2021-22 season: 60 goals in 73 games (67-goal pace) – (stats: hockeydb.com)
Matthews missed nine games last year due to injury, which means his Hart Trophy year could have been even better.
I’m not saying he’s going to score 70 goals next year, but don’t be shocked if he scores 60 again and puts up even more points than last year. If can play all 82-games, Matthews is set to become a candidate for the Hart Trophy once again.
No. 3: Who Will Play Second-Line Left Wing?
A few days ago, I wrote about this topic and came up with four players who could fill the role.
The most logical player to play second-line left-wing is Alex Kerfoot, although many think he should get traded (we’ll get that to later).
With so many trade rumors surrounding him, Kerfoot is all of a sudden becoming one of the most underrated players on the roster. The way people talk about his contract makes it look like he makes $10M per year, when in fact, he only makes $3.5M AAV.
For a 50-point player who can play the penalty-kill and switch between centre/wing, I’d say that’s a fair value.
The arrival of Michael Bunting and his $950K AAV deal has made Kerfoot’s contract terrible, because everyone thinks the Leafs can find another player on that type of deal who can replicate Bunting’s success. That’s not as easy as it sounds, but it does fit the mold of one other player who could fill the 2LW position.
Although I do think Kerfoot is the player to fill the role, if everything works out to plan, Nick Robertson should be the team’s second-line left-winger this year. His offensive output and ability to score will make Toronto’s top two-line’s unstoppable and it’ll allow Kerfoot to slide naturally into a third-line position, which will balance out the roster even more.
No. 4: Will Rasmus Sandin Re-Sign or Be Traded?
Contract hold-out’s have unfortunately been a common theme for Leafs players over the past few years, most notably with William Nylander, who held-out until the very last day he could.
The 22-years-old left-shooting defenseman was drafted in the first round of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft and has been a good young prospect for Toronto. However, he’s only played a total of 88 NHL games thus far.
In limited action, Sandin has done a lot of good things, but at the same time, he’s still made a lot of mistakes, which comes with being a young defenseman in the NHL.
His current hold-out is strange, because it doesn’t feel like he’s played enough games to justify this. So at the end of the day, do we think this hold-out will eventually turn into a signed contract with the Leafs or a trade somewhere else?
For whatever reason, my brain is telling me he’s getting traded. I don’t know where and I don’t know for what, but based on the salary-cap and this hold-out, Sandin will eventually get traded, in my opinion.
No. 5: Will Alex Kerfoot or Justin Holl be Traded?
One of the biggest questions about the Leafs heading into the season is about the potential departure of Justin Holl and Alex Kerfoot.
I find this funny because the real individual who should be getting traded is Jake Muzzin. His age, contract and health makes him a perfect candidate to unload right now, when both Kerfoot and Holl can be slotted in the line-up at a reasonable price.
Muzzin makes $5.625M, which is cheaper than Holl and Kerfoot combined ($5.5M total) and Muzzin has one more left on his contract than those other two.
If Toronto really wants to clear space and make a splash, then Muzzin should be the player to go and then they should hopefully re-sign Sandin and then trade for another forward or depth defenseman.
At this point, I’d be shocked if Kerfoot or Holl get traded, even though I thought that was a lock a few months ago. Instead, if anyone gets traded, I think it’ll be Jake Muzzin.
No. 6: Will Nick Robertson Be An Everyday NHLer?
You’re either completely on-board with Robertson as an everyday NHLer, or you think he’ll be a bust.
I’m leaning bust, but as an optimistic Leafs fan, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this is the year that Robertson finally establishes himself as an everyday NHLer.
I know that the OHL isn’t the NHL, but at the same time, it feels impossible that a player can score 55 goals in 46 OHL games and not be an everyday NHLer. I know he only has two points in 16 NHL games, but those stats are jaded.
He wasn’t given a real opportunity in the top-six and hasn’t had a steady run to show what he’s made of. Instead, he’ll show up for a few games, go back to the AHL and then rise and repeat.
In 28 games in the AHL last season, Robertson had 28 points (16 goals, 12 assists). That’s impressive, but the 16 goals was even more stunning. That’s a 47-goal pace at the AHL-level, which means he should be on his way to a minimum of 20-25 goals in the NHL.
Robertson needs to be given the first month in the Leafs top-six. Personally, I’d love to see him on a line with John Tavares and Mitch Marner, and then Matthews with Michael Bunting and William Nylander, but regardless, he needs to be paired with a legit centre and winger.
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If given that opportunity, I think he’ll shine and he’ll establish himself as an everyday NHLer and a top-six forward on the Leafs this year.