Toronto Maple Leafs Make Low Risk, High Reward Bet on Ilya Samsonov

The Toronto Maple Leafs picked up a pretty exciting player this summer, to little or no fanfare.

I understand that because the Toronto Maple Leafs not only lost again in the first round of the playoffs (although, at least this time you couldn’t really fault them), and because they then didn’t make any real organizational changes (at least not the kind that get people excited), that a lot of people who would normally be boarding the Hype Train right about now, have given up, or put their attentions elsewhere.

Which is good for them,  but I believe they are missing out on at least one thing to be excited about, and that is Ilya Samsonov.

Sure, he may not be coming off the best season (which is why he was available) but he offers an interesting amount of upside.

Maybe We Should Be More Excited About the Toronto Maple Leafs New Goalie

Drafted 22nd overall by the Washington Capitals in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, Samsonov was the first goalie taken that year.  This was the Connor McDavid/ Jack Eichel draft, so we aren’t talking about ancient history here.

Marner, Barzel, Dyland Strome, Conner, Chabot – players from this draft are just now entering their primes, and we are supposed to just assume the best goalie from their age group is finished? At 25?

As I noted earlier about Matt Murray, Samsonov is much younger than Campbell was when the Leafs acquired him and he turned his career around.   Both new Toronto goalies have a better history than Campbell did at that time.

That is not to say, however, that Samsonov is a good bet.

Yes he is young, and yes he has some pedigree, but that is about it.

Out of goalies who have played a minimum of 3800 minutes in the last three NHL seasons, Samsov has one of the lowest save percentages on high-danger shots. (Naturalstattrick.com).

He has only played eight career playoff games, never leading Washington out of the first round.

And his career statistics pretty much stink.  The reason Samsonov was a free-agent is that he is, at best, a replacement level NHL goalie to this point.

The reason the Leafs took a flyer on him is because a) at the very least he has a higher floor than Erik Kallgren (either could go on a run where they are the best in the world briefly, so their ceilings are probably similar) and b) his talent and size – what got him drafted – still exist.

Sure, there is not a great chance that he suddenly becomes an amazing NHL goalie.  But that chance is not zero.  I think Matt Murray has a better chance to return to glory, since Samsonov has never reached those highs, but who knows?

His pedigree and post-draft hype make him worth getting excited about, at least if you’re the kind of Leafs fan reading about hockey on Labour day.  I mean, that’s me, and if it’s you, might as well get excited!  Everyone else? Maybe not so much?

All we really know about NHL goalies is that if you are talented enough to make the NHL, you have a half-way decent shot of suddenly and unexpected becoming the best in the world.   Samsonov, for what amounts to the cheapest possible contract and acquisition cost possible, is an extremely low-risk bet with a very unlikely, but very high possible payoff.

At the very least it will be interesting.  But he’s all pedigree and not much more.