The Toronto Maple Leafs goalie situation is way better than they are getting credit for.
First of all, the Toronto Maple Leafs were right to refuse to sign Jack Campbell to a multi-year extension.
In the NHL, if you can’t have an elite goalie (of which there are only five or so: Vasilevsky, Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Binnington, and maybe Soros as a bonus) it is better to have flexibility than to be committed to someone else.
Therefore, it is better to have Matt Murray on a two-year deal than it is to have Campbell on a five-year deal.
The best part about the Murray deal (other than that they were paid to take him, something everyone seems to forget) is that with his injury history, if he doesn’t perform, he can be iced out on the long-term injured reserve, and the Leafs can pursue other options.
Flexibility is the key here. They made a bet, but it’s flexible, so if it doesn’t look like it’s going to pay off, they can cash in their insurance and call an audible. It’s a pretty smart strategy.
And in the event the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the market for another goalie, Connor Hellebuyck is the one to keep an eye on.
Toronto Maple Leafs and Connor Hellebuyck
There is only one goalie who appears on the leader board, in all of the last three NHL’s seasons, for goals saved above expected.
This is a stat that takes into account the defense in front of a goalie and says whether or not he let in more or less goals than he should have, based on the team in front of him.
The only goalie who appears on the list in all three of the last seasons, and who happened to be ranked first overall in two of them, is Connor Hellebuyck.
Only his lack of playoff success relative to Andre Vasilevsky, really his only competition for the title of best goalie in the world at the present time, prevents him from being the best goalie of his generation.
Hellebuyck, who has a Vezina, is 29 years-old, and has a contract of just over $6 million for each of the next two seasons, is a perfect candidate for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
He is cheap, he is not signed long-term, and his current team is garbage and doesn’t look to be getting any better before he is an unrestricted free-agent asking for nine or ten million per season.
The Winnipeg Jets, like the Islanders, are in possession of a goalie who is going to price himself out of town before they can ice a contender around him. The obvious move is to cash in, and, should Matt Murray not pan out, look for the Toronto Maple Leafs to try and make a move in this direction.
Goalies are random, and you might find a cheap option to return your investment tenfold. If you can’t get one of the best goalies in the world, this is a better option than paying for a Markstrom, a Demko, or a Campbell. But if you can get an elite goalie, you better take that extremely rare opportunity.
So while the Toronto Maple Leafs are likely satisfied, if Murray does badly and the Jets struggle, this is the kind of thing they should have in mind for a plan B.