Toronto Maple Leafs Critics Wrong About Everything But the Results

The Toronto Maple Leafs will enter the season knowing that they outplayed all of their last three playoff opponents, and that two of those teams still went on to play in the Finals.

Sure, the Toronto Maple Leafs could focus on the fact that they’ve failed to advance past the first round of the playoffs for six straight seasons, but what would be the point?

Sports are built around myths and delusion.

The biggest one, if you’re a hockey fan, is the veneration of whatever happens during seven games at the star of May over what happened in the preceding 82 games.

I personally care more about the playoffs than the regular season, but not for any reason that is logical or un-embarrassing. The reason I care more about the playoffs is that I was told to, and raised that way, and I barely even questioned it for ten or twenty years.

No one is arguing we should care more about the regular season, but it is delusional to place more importance on the playoffs than the regular season for predictive purposes.

For example, the team with the best regular season record, in any given year, is likely better than the Stanley Cup Champ.  This won’t always be the case, but given a large enough sample size, it is essentially certain that this would be the case more than 50% of the time.

Toronto Maple Leafs Critics Have Been Wrong at Every Turn

There is just an absolute ton of variance in any seven game series that features two pro teams.  The worst playoff team usually still has a 40% chance to advance to the next round.  Pro hockey is won in the margins and it doesn’t matter what people say or think, that is just the case, and it always will be.

There is not that much  variance in the regular season.  Though 82 games isn’t a large enough sample size to be certain that the President’s Trophy winner is the actual best team, it’s pretty close.

This is not an argument to start caring more about the regular season.  The nonsensical side of sports is not without its value, which usually comes in the form of fun.

That is why most people – even if they don’t know it – hate the advanced stats of 21st Century Sports.  There is just no fun in knowing that your favorite player earned his new five year contract on the back of an unrepeatable lucky year.

I get it. But, specifically, as fan of the current Toronto Maple Leafs, it’s hard not to be frustrated by the way this team is viewed.

They have failed to advance in the playoffs, but not because of some fatal flaw. Not because they lack the talent, intangibles, defense, or leadership.  They failed to advance because of bad luck and no other reason.  There is always a 40% chance that the other team wins, even if you’re a major favorite.

Frankly, it isn’t even that unlikely or remarkable for a team to be upset by luck three years in a row.  We, as people, just hate the idea that human effort and talent doesn’t overcome luck.  It might lead us down some uncomfortable paths of thinking.

But specifically to the Leafs: everyone (i.e the media and the fans that parrot that media) said that the Leafs could not win with their focus on skill, with their cap philosophy, with their top heavy lineup,  with their rookie GM etc.   They were too soft, they didn’t have a killer instinct, they lacked intangibles.

Whatever.

The Leafs came out and countered all of these qualms.  They did not lose a single series under Kyle Dubas where they were the worst team in that series.  Their stars failed to score, but their defense was spectacular.  Their goaltending was nearly equal to the absolutely bonkers goalies they faced.

They came from behind to overcome multi goal deficits better than any team in history, which shows grit, character, determination and leadership.  They played great defense and  they were never pushed around.

Does anyone come out and say “OK they lost, but not in the way I expected them to”?

Of course not.  They were wrong about everything, but they were right about the result, so the resulting analysis has been horrendous for the more cerebrally inclined among us.  What is most annoying about the Leafs critics is that they have been wrong in every single thing they have said, except the final results, which we know, for a fact, beyond a doubt,  are nearly random in a seven game (or five game) series, unless one of the teams is horrible (at which point, the good team still likely only wins six times and loses four in any random ten game sample).

But if Mathews and Marner score like they normally do, the Leafs already have a Cup.  At the very least they’ve lost three straight times in the second round.  But no one ever thought that would be their downfall.  IN fact, it’s such an unlikely anomaly that it should be ignored.

Either Matthews and Marner are the best players to ever suck in the playoffs, and two of the only people ever to be able to rise to the top of their professions and have trouble playing under pressure or, much more likely, given what we know about math, that they just had a major unlucky streak.

Which is why the Leafs haven’t fired their coach or GM.  But it makes the criticism of the Leafs really disingenuous.  Those who have ripped on the Kyle Dubas era the entire time have been wrong in all of their assessments.  The Leafs never lost a single time because of any of the things they complained about.

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost because Columbus somehow set a playoff record for save percentage, because John Tavares got injured against Montreal, and because the referees blew two games so badly Tampa won twice when they shouldn’t have.