The Toronto Maple Leafs may not have had the most exciting summer, but they remain among the NHL’s best teams.
The Toronto Maple Leafs finished last season 4th overall, and they did it while getting just the 27th overall 5v5 goaltending.
What that means, is that the Leafs are the NHL’s best team. Though hockey is a game that is hard to predict because the player with the most influence on the outcome (i.e the goalie) is the player whose performance will vary the most.
For an example of what I mean, if you look at the ten goalies who saved the most pucks above their expected amount (based on the defense in front of them) you see only three names in common between last year and the year before. (moneypuck.com).
Go back three years, and you get see that only one person, Connor Hellebuyck, is on all three lists. They are mostly completely different every year. That is pretty concrete evidence that goalie performance fluctuates., though anyone whose ever watched or played hockey knows this to be true.
If you look at a similar list for skaters, you will see a lot more consistency.
It’s a pretty straightforward conclusion: If skaters are predictable and goalies aren’t, the team that outperforms it’s goalie by the biggest margin is likely the best team.
Therefore, there is no reason to be worried about the Toronto Maple Leafs goaltending situation. They finished 4th with the 27th best goalies, so if they have now have the worst goalies in the league (a pretty remote possibility) then they should still be a top-ten team.
And logically, that means they will certainly make the playoffs.
Toronto Maple Leafs Among 5 Locks for the Playoffs
Looking around the NHL, what other teams are certain locks?
Edmonton because you could put their two superstars on Phoenix and they’d likely make the playoffs.
Tampa, Colorado, and Minnesota all look like strong bets to make the Playoffs.
All other teams are suspect for one reason or another.
Carolina and Calgary could be Cup Contenders, or total crap, and Pittsburgh has never missed the playoffs while Crosby was on the team other than the year they drafted him. Florida is poorly managed and had a brutal offseason, but I doubt they go from first overall to missing the playoffs.
New Jersey will be a shockingly good team and will also now be a contender because Jack Hughes is going to be one of the NHL’s top players.
They are all likely to make the playoffs, but the importance and mystery of goalies makes it all a gamble. The only teams absolutely, 100% guaranteed to make the Playoffs are Toronto, Tampa, Colorado, Edmonton, and Minnesota.
In other words, the NHL’s five best teams, and the only five who will still make the playoffs if they get terrible goaltending. If you don’t believe me, check out last year’s pre-season power rankings.