The Toronto Maple Leafs Player Most Likely to Breakout in 2022-23

The Toronto Maple Leafs were spoiled by the way in which William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner became instant stars without taking years to develop.

Only Nylander spent any time in the minors, and when the Toronto Maple Leafs finally put him in the NHL, he scored 22 goals and 61 points in his first full season.

The next two draft picks the team made in the first round took a little longer to develop, and both Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren waited several years, long after the post-draft-hype had worn off, before breaking into the NHL and becoming impact players.

Last season, both rookies took major steps in their games, with Timothy Liljegren especially having an amazing rookie year  that saw him post some of the best numbers in the NHL, while garnering several deserved Calder Trophy Votes (he will prove to be the best rookie to emerge from the 2022 season). (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Timothy Liljegren and the Toronto Maple Leafs

In 2022 Liljegren was the Toronto Maple Leafs best defenseman, and Sheldon Keefe’s mistake to scratch him for the last five games against the Lightning in this year’s first round could very likely have cost the Leafs a birth into the second round.  (I would say that there is about a 99% probability that a team  who ends up losing by just one goal, and in addition needed several referee errors to cause the loss in the first place, would have won if they played their best defenseman).

Liljegren wasn’t just the Leafs best defenseman last year, he was better than 93% of other NHL defenseman.  That number includes a lot of 3rd pairing minutes, and a lot of minutes with some of the NHL’s best players.  Full credit to Keefe for using him in the most effective way, but even his biggest fan and his mother don’t think he’s better than 93% of NHL defenseman based on overall talent.

However, as a rookie, putting up insano numbers, it is very much possible that he one day will become that good.

He scored 23 points in 61 games, which doesn’t seem that impressive until you realize that 20 of those points came at 5v5 because he didn’t really get any power-play time.  That prorates to 31 points over 82 games, which is elite 5v5 scoring for how many minutes he played.

On a per/minute basis, Timothy Liljegren was the 15th highest scoring defenseman (5v5) in the NHL last year.  That is very, very good.

Ranks Among NHL Defenseman (5v5) Who Played a Minimum of 800 5v5 minutes :Corsi: 59% 20thShots-For: 55% 17thScoring-Chances: 58% 4thExpected-Goals: 60% 3rd

Liljegren is elite at skating the puck out of trouble, and his hockey sense is very high, which allows him to be extremely effective even though his game has several holes in it.

Liljegren has trouble with passing the puck for a breakout, as well as trouble retrieving loose pucks.  His puck-possession game is very strong and he drives play, which is how he is so good defensively in the aggregate, even if he looks pretty bad in his own zone at times.

His problem is that he can’t handle big players down-low, but keep in mind that players who can tend to get hemmed in their own zone, and that a puck-mover is infinitely preferable if you have to choose.

Still, the breakouts, the lack of puck-retrieval skills, and the defensive coverage are what will likely prevent him from ascending to the heights of Cale Makar or Roman Josi, players who can (mostly) do it all.

However, those skills may develop with time. Extremely doubtful, but who knows?  He’s just 23 and has played only 74 NHL games.

When Liljegren was on the ice in 2021-22, only one team, Boston, did better in terms of expected-goals percentage.   Sure, you must credit the coach with using him in such an effective way (the best two players, were Boston’s 1st pair) and unlike the Boston Duo, Liljegren likely wouldn’t be the best in the world if he was used like a #1, but that doesn’t make these numbers any less encouraging.

Like, why would you not be excited about a rookie defenseman on your favorite team who, as a rookie, was able to be deployed in a way that approximated the best defensemen world?

Expect Liljegren to surpass Morgan Rielly and TJ Brodie at some point next season as the Toronto Maple Leafs best defenseman.  He is the Leafs #1 breakout candidate this season.