The Toronto Maple Leafs have proven themselves capable of drafting and developing high-end prospects.
Unfortunately though, the significant impact of drafted and developed players on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster seems to have stalled.
Of course, the likes of Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner and William Nylander are all signs of positive player development, but the talent thins rapidly beyond that and all were top-ten picks.
Perhaps the closest to a recent success story is Timothy Liljegren, though much like those mentioned, he was still a first-round pick so always had certain expectations around cracking the line-up.
Toronto Maple Leafs Must Develop Later Round Talents
Here is the challenge for the Toronto Maple Leafs; drafting and developing a player picked up in the first or second round shouldn’t be anywhere near as challenging as graduating a later-round pick into a substantial role.
Pierre Engvall is the only current player that the Leafs drafted outside of the first round who is on their current roster, and he is unlikely to ever become a star.
Likewise, they’ve managed to graduate third and fourth-round picks to the roster. However it all seems to be rather hit-and-miss especially when you contrast with successful teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Lightning have built their team around three high draft picks (Hedman, Stamkos, Vasilevskiy) and two low picks who turned into superstars in Nikita Kucherov and Braydon Point.
Despite drafting for talent and skill, the Leafs are yet to hit on such a player. However, it’s not really something you can blame anyone for, since drafting star players outside of the first round is incredibly rare.
According to Byron Bader, only 21 defensemen between 2000-2016 were drafted outside the first round and became stars, and it’s even harder for forwards:
Drafted from 2000 to 2016, only 18 forwards drafted outside the 1st round have turned into stars in the NHL (200+ games, 0.7+ points-per-game). 18 out of roughly 1,800 players drafted in those rounds (1%). pic.twitter.com/D5v9HbKoq8
— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) August 15, 2022
Certainly the Toronto Maple Leafs have proven that they can develop players, but realistically most sixth and seventh-round picks like Engvall and Johnsson shouldn’t be expected to have as high a ceiling as a third-rounder.
This may change in the coming years. Mark Hunter drafted horribly and the Leafs have nothing to show outside the first round from the 2015-18 drafts. The drafts Dubas held where the team was shooting for stars are too new to tell if they will bear fruit.
Of more recent draft picks, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Joseph Woll and Nicholas Abruzzese hold the best chances, from the middle rounds of securing a permanent spot on the Toronto Ma,ple Leafs roster sooner rather than later.
Topi Niemela, Roni Hirvonen, Matthews Knies, Alex Steeves, Rodion Amirov and Nick Robertson represent the top of the Leafs current prospect pool, and if one of those players becomes a star, and several others at least make the NHL, the entire franchise will be altered for the better.
However, if the Toronto maple Leafs continue to miss on all of their draft picks, it will make winning extremely difficult.
Now the development staff might very well work their magic and prove everything previously stated wrong, but right now – the Leafs need more from their mid-round picks moving forward.