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League Average Goaltending Will Still Improve the Toronto Maple Leafs

By Luke Ryan

Jan 1, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators defenseman Victor Mete (98) battles for the puck with Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares (91) in front of Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray (30) during the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 1, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Ottawa Senators defenseman Victor Mete (98) battles for the puck with Toronto Maple Leafs center John Tavares (91) in front of Ottawa Senators goaltender Matt Murray (30) during the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports /
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Somewhat remarkably, the Toronto Maple Leafs will improve next season if they can get goaltending on par with the league-average.

Across the past seven seasons, the league-average save percentage has been dropping to the point where it was 0.907 last season (per Hockey Reference). The Toronto Maple Leafs will be hoping to get better goaltending than that.

Petr Mrazek last season managed just a 0.888 save percentage; certainly below-par, hence his departure from the team this summer.

Jack Campbell was by contrast just above average with a 0.914 save percentage, but those numbers are really not the full story; his numbers were elevated by a Vezina-worthy November save percentage of 0.959.

Neither Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Is Returning Though

Here is where it will get interesting for the Toronto Maple Leafs this coming season; neither Campbell or Mrazek, with their combined 0.901 save percentage, will be coming back.

In their place will be the tandem of Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov, a pairing that if we look at their combined save percentage last term simply matches the 0.901 Mrazek and Campbell matched for.

Perhaps the only reason to view the incumbent pairing as an improvement upon last season is the fact that Murray was playing for the 26th-placed Ottawa Senators and Samsonov the 13th-placed Washington Capitals.

Based on their teams’ respective positions in the league last season, you’d have to imagine both can offer some more significant numbers with a Toronto Maple Leafs side that retains it young core that finished 4th last year.

Looking to the fact that Campbell, Mrazek, Kallgren and Woll combined to provide enough goaltending for the team to attain a franchise-best 115 points and 4th place in the league, despite being below-average for long stints, you have to imagine there is still room for team improvement.

With significant roster changes, of course this may not prove to be the case next season for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but you have to imagine that goaltending might well get improved results regardless.

Matt Murray showed himself very much able behind a strong team when he won two Stanley Cups during his time in Pittsburgh. Likewise, Samsonov’s debut season suggested that he might be the future in Washington a few years back.

The Leafs finished last season with their goaltending ranked as the 27th best 5v5 goaltending in the NHL, and yet they still finished fourth overall. If the Leafs get terrible goaltending, they probably won’t be any worse than they were last year.  If their goalies are just league average, they’ll be unstoppable as long as the team performs similarly to how it did last season.

Next. The Leafs Should Keep Justin Holl. dark

Time will only tell but you have to imagine league average is fully within reach if the two newcomers (and the new goalie coach) settle in fast and remain fit and healthy.

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