Free Agent Signings All Signed Cheap For the Toronto Maple Leafs

Apr 26, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano (55) skates against the Detroit Red Wings during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 26, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Mark Giordano (55) skates against the Detroit Red Wings during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Toronto Maple Leafs might not have inspired their fanbase with their summer signings but most came across on deals below their perceived value.

A recent look at all of the free agent signings thus far this summer by Evolving Hockey suggests that the Toronto Maple Leafs new signings may have all left possible money on the table to sign.

Headlining that group is Mark Giordano, who very much took a leaf out of Jason Spezza’s book in signing a near league-minimum deal as a veteran that still has something to offer. Its an insanely  team-friendly deal.

Also, while the term on Calle Jarnkrok’s deal may not appeal to everyone, he still likely could have found more money elsewhere, so it suggests players want to come to Toronto at the very least.

Toronto Maple Leafs Getting Plenty Of Perceived Value

For the past few seasons, Evolving Hockey has developed and refined a model that gets reasonably close in terms of projecting the cap hit and matching it to the term any given NHL player may sign.

Based on their model, there is not a single player joining the Toronto Maple Leafs this summer that isn’t offering perceived value in terms of their projected cap hit versus their actual cap hit.

The stand-out of that group is the returning Mark Giordano, though you might wonder if his projected cap hit is weighted against his last contract and recent years performance, given he is in his late thirties these days.

However, regardless of that, Mark Giordano arguably left $4.5 million on the table when he inked his $800,000 deal this year, which absolutely speaks volumes to the player wanting to be in the city rather than caring too much about another big payday.

The Evolving Hockey model also looks at the Calle Jarnkrok deal as being quite valuable. Based on their modelling, a deal with four years of term was projected to pay him $4.43 million in terms of cap hit. He rates a half-price absolute bargain signing if that truly is the case.

To be perceived to earn double the amount you sign for, clearly their model sees some additional performance or something that points to extra value – the Toronto Maple Leafs might’ve pulled off some remarkable business there.

Their model has Ilya Samsonov leaving $350,000 on the table, Nicolas Aube-Kubel leaving $120,000 on the table and both Pierre Engvall and Timothy Liljegren re-signing their deals $70,000 and $30,000 lower than they were projected.

With Rasmus Sandin still to sign a new deal and there still being a chance of further free agency business being carried out, the Toronto Maple Leafs can still spoil an impressive summer of signings by offering too much.

However in the short-term, people have to take note that the team are managing to sign players below their perceived open market value.

Much like Michael Bunting far out-performed his cap hit the past season, Kyle Dubas will absolutely be hoping that these new guys can show that their perceived values should indeed have been even higher.

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With the Leafs roster stacked with some very big-money contracts, they must absolutely hope to continue to find value and the odd diamond in the rough; such is the challenge they’ve created for themselves.