It Is Painfully Obvious That the Maple Leafs Have to Trade Jake Muzzin

The Toronto Maple Leafs have to move on from Jake Muzzin.

Jake Muzzin has been a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs for four seasons and has played 183 games with the club, good for 207th all time (tied with Jason Spezza). (stats quanthockey.com).

In this time he’s been an elite force and one of the league’s top defenseman.  Not a superstar of the likes of Cale Makar, but a solid, all-round player who was among the league’s top 20-30 defenseman, maybe even higher.

Unfortunately, last season saw Muzzin suffer 2 concussions, his Expected Goals rating (still a solid 53%) dropped by 3 percentage points.  Important to note here, however, that Muzzin paired with Holl was a 53% pairing, while Muzzin with anyone besides Holl was a 48% pairing.

More concerning:  He maintained a 5v5 points per 60 of 1.22-1.28 for the last four seasons, and last year it dropped to 0.9. (naturalstattrick.com).

Even worse: His shots-allowed per 60 minutes went from 26 to 31.  Though it was partially due to bad goaltending, he was destroyed by a total score of 43-35 when he was on the ice last year.  Other than the year LA finished 22nd overall, this was by far his worst season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Must Trade Jake Muzzin

When you factor everything I wrote above with the fact that Muzzin is going to turn 34 this season, it seems like wishful thinking to write him in for top-four minutes on a contending team.

Add in the two concussions, and note that he hasn’t played over 70 games in a season since 2017-18 and decision looks pretty easy to make.

Additionally: Muzzin’s $5.625 salary cap hit would more than pay for Rasmus Sandin, and give the Leafs some wiggle room.

Furthermore: Sandin is already better than Muzzin, based on last year’s statistics.  Even accounting for ice-time allocation, experience and intangibles, it doesn’t seem like a stretch to say that Sandin will pass him soon if he hasn’t already, considering their ages.

Muzzin obviously brings a style and experience that Sandin doesn’t, but at some point you do have to move out the old to make way for the new, and Sandin is clearly a lot more valuable to this franchise going forward.

The other factor is that the Leafs are the deepest at left-shooting defenseman. They have seven right now who are capable of playing in the NHL.  People talk about moving Holl, but he’s younger and healthier and more right handed than Jake Muzzin.  Plus, Holl was better than Muzzin last year.

Jake Muzzin has a NTC and he might not want to waive it.  The Toronto Maple Leafs can’t afford to be sentimental, however.  If Tampa can make Ryan McDonagh waive his NTC, the Leafs can be equally Machiavellian.

Getting rid of Muzzin solves the log jam on defense, it allows Sandin to take a top-four role, it gives the team cap space and doesn’t make them worse.  It probably actually makes them better.

On the other hand, what is the upside to keeping him, other than what he brings to the team as a human?  In a perfect world, you could play him just enough to keep him fresh for the playoffs, breaking in the new guys while maintaining the benifit of his experience.  The salary cap prevents this, however.

So as much as I am a Jake Muzzin fan, and much as I would like him to stay, trading him is one of the most obvious decisions an NHL team has ever had to make.