Toronto Maple Leafs: How Did John Tavares Get So Underrated?

The Toronto Maple Leafs made John Tavares the biggest and best UFA signing in NHL History.

In his first season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, John Tavares scored 47 goals, beating his career high by nine.

Since then, however, the Leafs have not had any  team success and, John Tavares doesn’t seem to be talked about with the same reverence any more.   In fact, based on my interactions with fans,  it seems like people consider him to have declined significantly, and they just seem to assume that he is no longer worth the money.

This couldn’t be further from the truth.

In 2021-22 John Tavares scored 27 times and finished with 76 points in 79 games, which isn’t a bad season, but it’s not what people are hoping for – they want 47 Goals Super Star John Tavares.  They might not get that ever again, but they are still getting one of the NHL’s best players.

John Tavares has become underrated, but let’s check out some numbers that show he’s still a star.

John Tavares and the Toronto Maple Leafs

This past season John Tavares had his second-highest points-per 60 minutes of ice-time (all situations) of his career.  It was second only to his first year in Toronto.

He also had the third-lowest shooting percentage of his career (His individual luck may have been bad last season, but his linemates did post very good shooting numbers to balance it out.  So while his goal totals were hurt by luck, his assist numbers were helped). (Stats naturalstattrick.com).

It is true that Tavares declined last season in his 5v5 scoring, but after his first season with Toronto (his best) he had an even steeper 5v5 points decline in year two, followed by a year 3 bounce back, and then another decline in year four.

So while he did decline in 5v5 scoring, we know that a) he has fluctuated throughout his career, and b) shown that he bounces back.

Here is what is important: In 2021-22 he posted a 53% Corsi, 55% Scoring Chances, 54% Expected Goals. 

Those are VERY strong numbers, and here are Tavares’ best years for comparison:

Corsi 55% 2014-15 Scoring Chances 56% 2018-19 Expected Goals 56% 2014-15.

The 2014-15 season was Tavares best overall, which makes sense because he was 23 and that is when a majority of  superstars peak.  But Tavares has barely dropped off since then – he’s a model of consistency.

What he did ten years ago as a first-line Franchise Player, he’s now doing as a second line complimentary player, and he’s among the best (if not the actual best) second-line centres in the NHL.

The reason that people think Tavares has declined is as simple as it is obvious: When Tavares was on the ice last year, the Toronto Maple Leafs were outscored 61-57 and, as a minus player, people assume he must be doing something wrong.

But he isn’t.

We know that when Tavares was on the ice, the Leafs had the puck more, took more shots, had mores scoring chances and were the better team.  The reason they still lost those minutes is because the goalies were terrible.

Leafs Goalies had an .898 Save Percentage when Tavares was on the ice last year.  That is horrible and it is beyond the control of the player (if anything, Tavares strong play, i.e his 54% Expected Goals Rating,  was so good it game within four goals of completely counteracting the bad goaltending).

The second-lowest save percentage of his career, with maybe a touch of frustration thrown in for losing in the first round, is the only reason that people are talking about Tavares as if he is no longer the player he was.

The fact is, Tavaers is, and always has been, a fairly slow skater, which means he’s likely to age better than most (since his success isn’t based on something guaranteed to desert him early in his 30s).

The numbers actually say that last year was one of Tavares’ best seasons.  27 goals and 76 points with a nearly career worst individual shooting percentage, and a 54% Expected Goals Rating is an excellent season.

Tavares is being underrated right now. He’s still got three seasons to go on his contract, and it would still be nearly impossible to spend the money they are spending on Tavaers in a more effective way, since, even if you had $11 million to spend right now, where you find someone on this level to give most of it too?