Toronto Maple Leafs: Matt Murray Is a Risk-Free Lottery Ticket

The Toronto Maple Leafs definitely made an unorthodox play when it came to rebuilding the goalie portion of their roster.  To say the least.

Rarely have I seen a move so universally lambasted, doubted, misunderstood and mocked, as the one the Toronto Maple Leafs made this summer.

And that is understandable – it’s a weird move, they didn’t explain it very well, and frankly, it’s probably baffling for most people to see a team move on from a star goalie who was signed to a very expensive contract by a rival, and replace him with spare parts.

Full disclosure: the people who think this move is insane could be right. I  won’t say it’ s a great move, but I’m going to explain why I think it is actually very smart, based on what I think the Leafs are thinking.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goaltending Situation Explained

First of all, it’s important to note that the goal of “analytics” is to make decisions that are not influenced by reputation and perception.

For example: Jack Campbell was the NHL’s best goalie for the entire calendar year of 2021, spanning parts of two seasons, based on goals against average and save percentage.  During this time, the Leafs were a top team, and he then was handed a five year commitment by the Oilers.  This makes it seem like he is really good.

But: This great run was propped up by several months of high-performance that studies show any NHL goalie can achieve briefly, and very, very few can sustain.   Campbell was unable to stay healthy or maintain this performance, and the Leafs finished with the 27th worst goaltending in the NHL, ranked by 5v5 save percentage.

And in further study, it is revealed that Jack Campbell has the 69th lowest high-danger save-percentage, out of 75 qualified goalies, over the last three seasons.  High-Danger save percentage has been shown to be among the best indicators of future performance.

With this knowledge, I wrote, well ahead of free-agency, that a long term deal for Campbell would be a firable offense. 

Clearly the Leafs were thinking the same thing.

Enter Matt Murray

Jack Campbell was injury prone, emotional, and unable to win a playoff round.  He is 30 years old, and though he has had some success, he is being replaced by a younger goalie who has had more success (2 x Stanley Cups) for slightly less money, and a way  shorter commitment.

If you can forget that Campbell’s success happened more recently, what about that comparison makes this a bad move for the Leafs? On top of which, the Leafs get two draft picks in the transaction (a 3rd and a 7th).

The risk in choosing Murray is much, much lower since you are only committed for two years and not five.

Let’s say Murray is horrible – you turn the net over to Samsonov, and you try to trade Murray. Since he will want a chance to revitalize his career, he isn’t likely to activate his no movement clause.

But if he can’t be traded, Matt Murray’s injury history also means that if he’s bad, no one will look too closely if you put him on the LTIR, where his cap hit won’t matter.

This is why it’s such a smart move on the Leafs behalf: If Murray is bad, they have an insurance option (Samsonov) and two ways to move on from him (trade , LTIR).  If he is good, he’s getting paid less than the average starting goalie. (info from capfriendly.com.

Jack Campbell is a risky signing. You can’t just get out of a five years contract.  By trading for Murray and letting Campbell walk, the Leafs don’t lower their chances of getting good goaltending very much, if at all.

What they do get is a lower cap hit, a two year commitment vs a five year one, 2 x draft picks, and the ability to get out of the deal with ease.

In addition, Matt Murray himself is a lottery ticket.  If you get a healthy version of the guy who won two cups, suddenly your team gets a significant upgrade.  If he continues to play poorly, it should be really easy to move on from him.

No risk, high reward.

This shouldn’t be the NHL Off-Season’s most mocked move. It should be praised as a low-risk, high-reward move that has a great shot of paying off.

And if it doesn’t?  The Toronto Maple Leafs can call Winnipeg, who should be out of playoff contention by Christmas, and ask again about Connor Hellebuyck.

This bet offers a great pay out, but the Leafs bought insurance from every angle, so this is not the crazy high-risk bet some members of the media are making it out to be.