Projection For Timothy Liljegren and the Toronto Maple Leafs
This is the tough part…
Timothy Liljegren led the Leafs in all on-ice stats last season. When he was on the ice, they had the highest percentages of puck possession, shots, scoring chances and expected goals.
When he was paired with Mark Giordano, they were lights-out – getting 95 scoring chances while allowing just 71, and playing to a 61% Expected Goals rating.
The actual statistical performance of Liljegren was better than 93% of the NHL’s defenseman. As a rookie, that suggests he’s easily going to become a top pairing defenseman.
However, you must factor in that he played with teammates who were much stronger than the competition he faced overall, and this could perhaps mean that his success was as much a matter of the coach putting him in the right position to win his minutes vs him being absolutely dominant.
And when you look at his play down low in the zone, and his struggles with puck retrieval, you know he will likely never be the kind of super-star #1 defenseman in the vein of Victor Hedman or Cale Makar.
But who is?
Liljegren HAS to learn on the fly and fast. While I do see that he can make adjustments, he has to work on what he cannot control with on the fly adjustments which would be strength and… Yeah, mostly strength. The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot afford to give him time to take a slow approach, and his offseason should focus on this, as well as coverage in front of the net.
Timothy Liljegren was third among defenders in xG last season, so naturally, he broke the model. Even if he's nowhere near this good, $1.4 million is a steal since the expectation is replacement level at that price. pic.twitter.com/2QGVBz7y50
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) June 27, 2022
If he can do that, he’s easily going to be a very good #2, which is a top-pairing guy. But that’s his absolute ceiling for now. More likely, he grows into an above average second pairing right defenseman who puts up great numbers when paired with the correct players and used in the right situations.
His skating is top-notch, he can quarterback a powerplay, he can move the puck reliably and he gives the opposition something to worry about on the powerplay as he has a wicked shot.
As it stands now, he is an elite 3rd pairing option, a decent second pairing option, and a bad first pairing option. If he adds a puck-retrieval element to his game, and gets more successful with the breakout passing, he could potentially turn into an elite player, but most likely maxes out as a very good complimentary piece.
Whether that is on the first or second pairing really depends on how much strength he can add.