Toronto Maple Leafs: Will Timothy Liljegren Be a Top Pairing Defenseman?

 Strengths

Liljegren has solid skating, which really helps the Maple Leafs as he would quarterback the powerplay on the breakout.

He can keep up with the opposition, and his offensive upside could give the Maple Leafs another puck mover on D outside of Morgan Rielly.  Although he isn’t as aggressive or as talented in this regard as a truly elite offensive threat.

He is capable of making a great first pass to jumpstart the rush that the Leafs love to use to attack, but since he isn’t elite at retrieving pucks, he likely won’t be able to fully harness this power.  Statistically, he thrives at carrying the puck out of the zone and struggles when passing it.  

He can skate away from trouble, and he can lead the rush on his own. He is very adept at carrying the puck out of his zone, or  into the offensive zone successfully.

From his draft year, via Bob McKenzie of TSN, he was known to:

Scouts say his offensive game is far more developed than his defensive game. He is an elite skater, both in terms of speed and agility, and adept at running a power play. He is seen as both a puck mover and an offensive point producer. No one is suggesting he’s the next Erik Karlsson, not by any means, but scouts say he has some of the same qualities and, therefore, has the potential to be projected as a possible top pairing defenceman in time.

Another thing that Liljegren was praised on was his intelligence, and in his debut season, it was noticeable. He was not scared with the puck and analyzed his options before he made a decision. Yes, sometimes the decision wasn’t the best, but more often than not he made the right one. His confidence should only increase as he may find himself in a top-four role of an elite team this season.

Timothy Liljegren is an offensive defenseman, to no one’s surprise, and he scored at a 50 point clip without much (if any) power play time.  With more power-play time, I could see him putting up around 65 points per season if he continues to work on and polish the skills he does have while focusing on fixing his weaknesses.

Liljegren’s top strengths would be:

• Puck moving
• Agility and skating
• Passing ability
• Shot
• Overcomes lack of strength with smarts to be above average defensively

Speaking of weaknesses…

Weaknesses

Yeah, if you watched the Stanley Cup Playoff series vs the Tampa Bay Lightning, I’m sure that you saw this one coming.

The first thing Liljegren MUST work on is his strength. In the regular season, I could see him struggling to box guys out in front of the net. On top of this, his positioning to out-work bigger guys wasn’t there.

Still, what you notice is not always as big of a factor as it seems. While Liljegren was benched after two games in the playoffs, that is a very short sample size, and inexperience and nerves could easily have been a factor in his performance.

Liljegren often looks weak or lost in the defensive zone, but the numbers suggest that he is very successful regardless.  The JFresh card ranks him in the 72nd percentile, while the Athletic ranks him slightly higher.  This third measurement also shows he is an adept defender.

Three different sources, three different ways of measuring defense all come to the conclusion that however he looked, he was mostly successful.

What about the playoffs? Liljegren played in two blowout games in the playoffs then the coach took him out, despite the fact he was the team’s best statistical defenseman in the regular season.  The Leafs ended up losing by one goal in the seventh game, and this could very easily been a mistake by the coach, so too much should not be read into his benching.

At the same time, you watch how he plays down low close to the goalie, and you can see why Keefe did what he did.  This stuff isn’t an exact science, and when you add in the pressure to win, it’s easy to take out a rookie.   The big picture, however, is still very complimentary, even with his weaknesses.

Liljegren’s weaknesses would be:

• Puck Retrieval
• Strength
• Defensive play close to the goalie

Projection For Timothy Liljegren and the Toronto Maple Leafs

This is the tough part…

Timothy Liljegren led the Leafs in all on-ice stats last season.  When he was on the ice, they had the highest percentages of puck possession, shots, scoring chances and expected goals.

When he was paired with Mark Giordano, they were lights-out – getting 95 scoring chances while allowing just 71, and playing to a 61% Expected Goals rating.

The actual statistical performance of Liljegren was better than 93% of the NHL’s defenseman. As a rookie, that suggests he’s easily going to become a top pairing defenseman.

However, you must factor in that he played with teammates who were much stronger than the competition he faced overall, and this could perhaps mean that his success was as much a matter of the coach putting him in the right position to win his minutes vs him being absolutely dominant.

And when you look at his play down low in the zone, and his struggles with puck retrieval, you know he will likely never be the kind of super-star #1 defenseman in the vein of Victor Hedman or Cale Makar.

But who is?

Liljegren HAS to learn on the fly and fast. While I do see that he can make adjustments, he has to work on what he cannot control with on the fly adjustments which would be strength and… Yeah, mostly strength. The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot afford to give him time to take a slow approach, and his offseason should focus on this, as well as coverage in front of the net.

If he can do that, he’s easily going to be a very good #2, which is a top-pairing guy.  But that’s his absolute ceiling for now.  More likely, he grows into an above average second pairing right defenseman who puts up great numbers when paired with the correct players and used in the right situations.

His skating is top-notch, he can quarterback a powerplay, he can move the puck reliably and he gives the opposition something to worry about on the powerplay as he has a wicked shot.

As it stands now, he is an elite 3rd pairing option, a decent second pairing option, and a bad first pairing option.  If he adds a puck-retrieval element to his game, and gets more successful with the breakout passing, he could potentially turn into an elite player, but most likely maxes out as a very good complimentary piece.

Whether that is on the first or second pairing really depends on how much strength he can add.