Toronto Maple Leafs Missed Out Not Adding Danton Heinen

The Pittsburgh Penguins just renewed versatile forward Danton Heinen for $1 million; a move that the Toronto Maple Leafs could’ve squeezed into their (already full) cap space.

In a deal that seems to fit the current remit for the Toronto Maple Leafs bottom-six; the Penguins renewed Heinen for a meagre $1 million after allowing him to go unqualified.

Such a deal is cheap enough to squeeze under the salary cap, even with the fact that the Leafs are currently above the upper limit.

Likewise, it’s the sort of deal that matches ones that Toronto have been handing out to this summer’s free agents, namely the salary they’re paying Nicolas Aube-Kubel or the league-minimum that Adam Gaudette is being paid.

Danton Heinen Could’ve Helped the Toronto Maple Leafs

Perhaps the most telling reason that Danton Heinen would’ve been a fit with the Toronto Maple Leafs is that he produces similarly to Calle Jarnkrok, who will be paid $1.1 million more per season.

While his versatility in the NHL doesn’t quite stretch to playing center effectively as well, his best points total (47 points) in a season exceeds Jarnkrok’s best (35 points).

Considering the price difference of $1.1 million per season, Danton Heinen would’ve been a much more valuable option for a team already hard against the salary cap (and still yet to renew Rasmus Sandin).

Last season, he saw relatively low ice-time (around 14 minutes per game) and just 1 minute per game powerplay time on average, but still managed 33 points including 18 goals.

He certainly has historically shown to be able to play a penalty-killing role, seeing over a minute per game on average during his short stint with the Anaheim Ducks.

You might argue that he would’ve almost been the perfect replacement for Jason Spezza in terms of slotting in on the second powerplay unit, while equally he could’ve helped a penalty kill that has seen Ilya Mikheyev and Colin Blackwell depart this summer.

Looking to a pure 5-on-5 comparison (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) between Calle Jarnkrok (with the Seattle Kraken and Calgary Flames) and Danton Heinen (with the Pittsburgh Penguins) last season, it’s fair to say one stands out in almost every category.

Some measure of this is down to playing with a Pittsburgh Penguins team that routinely had Heinen on the ice with Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Carter and Jason Zucker as opposed to Jarnkrok’s regular Seattle Kraken line mates Yanni Gourde, Mason Appleton and Brandon Tanev.

However, you can’t mistake the fact that in 5-on-5 action, despite their team’s differing standing; Heinen had a considerably better Corsi For percentage (54.14% versus 50.5%), a considerably better Expected Goals For (56.8% versus 47.24%).

In fact, Jarnkork only really beats out Heinen when it comes to Expected Goals Against and even that’s by a minimal margin (30.59 versus 31.46).

All in all, Danton Heinen feels like he would’ve been both a cheaper and possibly even a safer bet when you consider the fact that Jarnkrok is inked to a four-year term with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Kyle Dubas might well have missed a trick here when you consider the longer-term impact of signing Calle Jarnkrok when a similar (albeit slightly more offense-leaning) player was available.