Toronto Maple Leafs Need a New 1st Line for 2022-23

The Toronto Maple Leafs had the best line in hockey for most of last year.

Michael Bunting – claimed by the Toronto Maple Leafs off the scrap heap – had one of the best seasons at 5v5 that anyone has had in the last 20 years.

He had the same amount of 5v5 points as Connor McDavid, in one less game and over 200 less minutes.

Auston Matthews scored 60 goals in 60 games, and put Wayne Gretzky’s single season record on the table as a possibility.

Mitch Marner was the NHL’s best player once returning from an injury on January 15th (1st in 5v5 points, 2nd in 5v5 goals, 1st in overall points, 4th in overall goals with an incredible 29, which for a full season would be 52.  He also posted a 64% Expected Goals rating, matched only by Auston Matthews and Patrice Bergeron.

So why mess around with this?

Toronto Maple Leafs Should Alter Their Lines

The Leafs could be a much harder team to face, but after team’s see a Marner-Matthews combination, even a Tavaers-Nylander combo seems easy by comparison.

It’s a very good second line, possibly even the best in hockey, when you account for teams that do not split up their two best players.   (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

In my opinion, if you switched Marner and Nylander, the drop off on the first line would be indistinguishable.  Auston Matthews is just that good.  Nylander for sure, and likely Bunting too, are elite on their own. You put them with the game’s best player, and they will elevate their performances.

Because of Matthews’ talent, the drop off from Marner to Nylander should be tiny, if it exists at all.

But Marner’s ability to drive a line and his chemistry with Tavares will give the Leafs two first lines.

Marner is something close to the best player in the world.  He’s on the same level as Matthews and McDavid, and if he isn’t seen as the 3rd best player in the world, it’s only because he hasn’t had the playoff success to elevate his rep.

Therefore, it’s wasteful to play him with Matthews.  At a certain point, when you pair up two superstars, you are subject to the law of diminishing returns.  Star players can elevate other players to their level, so you are losing out in two different ways by keeping the two superstars together.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have said they have no plans to switch Marner to centre.  That’s fine, because he’s the best winger alive.  He is also an elite defender, which the Tavares line could use.

To sum up, you make this move because it makes the Leafs harder to play against, gives them more elite players by proxy, removes the problem of diminishing returns caused  by having two play drivers paired together, and puts an elite defensive player on each line.

This seems like an obvious move, but we’ll have to wait to see if the Toronto Maple Leafs also think so.  The bottom line is that they can put a Hart Trophy winner on one line, and a future Hart Trophy winner on another, and basically make it so that for over half the game, they have an MVP Candidate on the ice.