Toronto Maple Leafs Will Likely Move Holl, Enter the Season As-Is

Scan around the Toronto Maple Leafs Internet for a while here in late July while we wait to see where Justin Holl is getting traded to, and one thing that jumps out in conversations is the second-line left-wing spot.

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t really improved their team this summer (though to be fair, they were already a great team and most likely still are) and the second-line left-wing spot seems an obvious spot to do so.

They currently have Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Michael Bunting guaranteed to take up five of the six available spots, which makes sense, because every one of them is among the best players in the NHL (or in the case of Michael Bunting, at least they were last year).

What the Leafs don’t have is a locked-in option to be their 2LW.

The options are to either enter the season with that spot available as motivation at training camp, similar to last year, or to acquire a left winger before the summer is out.

I suspect the Leafs will choose the former, but let’s discuss.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Second Line Left Winger

The most common LW used last season on the Leafs second line was Alex Kerfoot.  Kerfoot is a useful player, and if he comes back, the Leafs know what they’re getting, and that’s an above average sixth-best forward, but one without much upside.

Kerfoot makes $3.5 million and would be easy to move.  Many teams would want him, and it wouldn’t require the Leafs to pay to get out of his contract, the clearing of which would facilitate the Rasmus Sandin singing and allow the Leafs to get cap compliant.

The other reason you’d move Kerfoot is that whatever combination of Tavares/Nylander/Marner the team employs, whoever ends up on the left-wing would have the potential for a Bunting-like breakout/ contract-value situation.  The key to the situation here though is that you can keep Kerfoot for insurance and still dangle that spot.

We know the Leafs are open to this because last year there was every chance for Ritchie, Ho-Sang, Gusev, Mikheyev or Robertson (injuries) or someone else to lay claim to the job. Ultimately Kerfoot took the reins, but not as the first choice.

Trading for another star doesn’t seem to be in the cards.  Technically, the Leafs could dump Muzzin, Kerfoot and Holl for over $11 million, promote Sandin and Liljegren to the top-four and sign another star forward.

But why jump into such a situation? That option will still be available later, just with more options and less risk.

If Muzzin is good, he’s a huge value. If he is not good, he recently had two concussions and no one is going to argue too hard if  the Leafs say he’s “injured” and then they can find a replacement for him in-season.  Why eliminate the chance he could help you now? Why just hand Sandin a top-four job when the team is better if he steals it?

The best strategy is to wait with Muzzin and they might even do the same thing with Kerfoot.  If Knies, Steeves, Robertson, Malgin or someone else lays claim to the job, the Leafs can move Kerfoot.  If no one does, they can slot him back in and still have among the best second-lines in the NHL.  Or they can trade for outside options, which there will be more of closer to the trade deadline.

The Leafs are currently over the cap by less than Justin Holl makes.  The move here is obvious, though likely unpopular:

In order to give themselves the maximum flexibility, the Toronto Maple Leafs will trade Justin Holl for a fifth round pick and then enter the season with (more or less) their current roster.   (stats naturalstattrick.com).

This protects them in case none of their players break out and demand higher spots in the lineup (Liljegren, Sandin, Aube-Kubel, Malgin, Steeves, Engvall, Robertson) and allows them to move Kerfoot and Muzzin in-season (possibly to the IR in Muzzin’s case) and improve their team with lots more options.

If there are six good left-wing options to trade for today, there will be 18 at the trade deadline, since teams that are optimistic now will not be then.  If someone breaks out, the Leafs won’t have to make a move for a left-winger, and can make a pick-up where they most need it at the time.  If no one does, they can revisit the idea of trading for another star forward, but why jump the gun?

The Leafs are entering the season as one of the only NHL teams you can call a 100% lock to make the playoffs, as well as one of the three best teams in the league, along with Tampa and Colorado.

Therefore, they have no impetus to make decisions today.  By holding Muzzin and Kerfoot, they get the following advantages:  a) In-Season Salary Cap Flexibility b) potentially more available players later b) the chance internal options breakout d) the chance to get something out of those players (Muzzin and Holl) in the event they can’t develop replacements internally .

No other scenario gives the Toronto Maple Leafs so many options, so expect a boring rest-of-the-off-season for them, and keep in mind that while that isn’t very exciting, it’s clearly their best play right now.