The Toronto Maple Leafs made a very bold move in pursuing Matt Murray as their new goalie, but in the long-term it could prove the safer bet.
Removing any of the noise around the decision, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a guaranteed two years of Matt Murray at roughly $4.7 million.
Matt Murray right now is 28 years-old which means he’ll be 30 years-old when the current deal expires; sounds like a worthwhile risk.
There is a lot to be said about injury history, slumping form and the like but it also has to be assumed that the Toronto Maple Leafs have completed plenty of due diligence on their decision.
Toronto Maple Leafs Hedge Their Bets on a Matt Murray Bounce Back
Now, of course, you can make the argument that the Maple Leafs should have completed their due diligence on the Petr Mrazek deal. However, it’s not a finite science and that’s not to say the Murray deal will work out either.
However, where this stands out as a safer bet is when you contrast the Matt Murray contract with the one the Edmonton Oilers just inked Jack Campbell to, or indeed the one that the Carolina Hurricanes inked Freddie Andersen to.
Jack Campbell will be 35 years-old when his five-year deal paying $5 million a season expires. Likewise, Freddie Andersen is costing the Hurricanes $4.5 million until he’s 33 years-old.
Murray is two years younger than Campbell and three years younger than Andersen when they signed deals in a similar ball-park. All three goalies have slightly turbulent injury histories and all three have had rollercoaster form (lots of peaks and throughs).
However, there’s enough to suggest that provided he can survive the season injury-free, Murray is certainly a wiser option than Campbell; it’s harder to contrast him with Andersen, given the impressive Hurricanes team defense.
Between January 1st and the end of the season, Jack Campbell playing behind the Toronto Maple Leafs was good for a 0.893 save percentage.
By contrast, Matt Murray playing behind a considerably weaker Ottawa Senators side was good for a 0.912 save percentage.
Likewise, their goals-against-averages were 3.27 and 2.95 respectively, with Matt Murray sporting the better numbers there too (statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick).
There’s an argument to be made that the sample sizes aren’t truly comparable, given that Campbell played 26 games in that span while Murray played 14. Of course, this does bear some thinking, but the numbers are averages so should actually be relatively balanced comparisons.
All told, Matt Murray is a safer bet for the Toronto Maple Leafs as they can simply cut and run in two years’ time if it’s not working out. The Edmonton Oilers are going to be on the hook for $5 million for five years if Jack Campbell doesn’t pan out.
That’s without also factoring in that the Toronto Maple Leafs gained a 3rd and 7th round pick as bonuses for bringing Murray in; it’s not a low-risk deal but it certainly isn’t as high-risk as Campbell for five years.