Toronto Maple Leafs: The Stat that Makes the Matt Murray Trade Okay

The Toronto Maple Leafs shocked the hockey world when they acquired goalie, Matt Murray from the Ottawa Senators on Monday.

Not only did the Toronto Maple Leafs get Matt Murray (a two-time Stanley Cup champion), they also got two draft picks and Ottawa will retain 25% of his salary without the Leafs giving up anything.  If Matt Murray works out, this trade is a great steal!

However, Matt Murray hasn’t been great lately.  Last season, he was 5-12-1 with a .906 save percentage, though it’s worth noting his stats were very good, but his final few games of the season tanked them due to a low sample size.

In 2020-21 he went 10-13-1 with a .893 save percentage and in 2019-20 (his last season with the Pittsburgh Penguins) he had a .899 save percentage. (Stats from HockeyReference).

A number of injuries have also limited Matt Murray to only 20 games last season and 27 the season prior.  The Toronto Maple Leafs requested a full medical examination before accepting the trade though, and they must’ve liked what they saw.

The Leafs biggest issue last season was goaltending, and it seemed like they were going to address this issue during the offseason.  They’ve fired and hired goalie coaches.  They dumped Petr Mrazek, and it seems like Jack Campbell will leave in free agency.  How does Matt Murray make them any better?

The Stat that Makes the Matt Murray Trade Okay for the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs management team is known for analyzing advanced stats and there’s one stat that makes the Matt Murray trade make sense.

Last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs were one of the NHL’s worst teams in Goals Against Above Expected where the team ranked 26th in the league.

The relative stat for goalies is Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).  According to JFresh on Twitter “GSAx, an actual advanced stat, is based on expected goals models that value shots against differently based on their quality.”

Jack Campbell had a .914 save percentage last season which is pretty good, however he was ranked 32nd in NHL GSAx per 60 among goalies to play at least 20 games.  Petr Mrazek was ranked 58th of 61 goaltenders to play at least 20 games.  Matt Murray was ranked 16th. (Stats from MoneyPuck)

It seems like the shots that got by Murray last season where shots he didn’t have much chance at stopping, and/or he made some great saves on shots he wasn’t expected to stop, whereas Campbell and Mrazek let in a bunch of goals they should’ve been able to block.  Perhaps Matt Murray could excel on a better defensive team like the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Of the 15 goaltenders ranked ahead of Matt Murray in GSAx per 60, the only free agent goalie  still available was Darcy Kuemper who ranked 6th.