The Toronto Maple Leafs Finished 4th Overall, Had 27th Best Goalies

A lot of people are wondering why the Toronto Maple Leafs would bet on a goalie who has been so bad in the last couple of seasons when they are a contending team right smack in their competitive window.

The reason the Toronto Maple Leafs would rather get paid to take on a formerly great goalie rather than pay for one who is equally likely to be any good, is because they can.

Last season they finished 4th overall, and they did it with the 27th best 5v5 goaltending.

The Leafs finished with a  .701 points percentage, which is an absolutely insane accomplishment when you also consider they had the 6th worst goaltending in the NHL.  If you are that good with such bad goaltending, why not spend your money and assets on parts of the team you have a better control over ?

You don’t really need to squint very hard to see Matt Murray improving their team.  If he stays healthy, the odds are extremely high that he can be the 26th or better goalie in the NHL.  If he isn’t healthy he won’t cost anything.

Therefore, there is no risk in this trade.  The risk, such that it is,  is really about the opportunity cost of signing or trading for other goalies, but considering that there are only about 5 humans on earth who you could bet with any confidence will be perform well for sure next season, getting paid to take Murray is less risky than any of the alternatives.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Matt Murray

Say the Leafs wanted Ville Husso, Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper, who it stands to reason are the best of what’s known to be out there. (Note, I missed the Husson signing, but the point still stands especially because he signed a much riskier deal than what the Leafs are committing to).

All of those players costs more money and longer term than Matt Murray.  None comes with two bonus draft picks. Not one is more likely than the other, including Murray, to stand out over the rest: it  could be any of them who ends up being the best, or they could all stink – they’re goalies and no one knows.

Say the Leafs wanted to trade for a star goalie on a team that is retooling.   Those guys make six million+, and they cost a ton of assets.  The math says it’s a loss every time to go for one. Plus it likely wasn’t even an option.

Considering his former elite play , relatively young age, and stellar playoff record, Murray is just as good as a bet as anyone you could possibly sign outside of Hellebuyck, Binnington, Sorokin, Vasilveskiy and maybe Price.  He is the only one who you get paid to take, out of the remaining options.

Additionally, the team has already shown that with  VERY BAD, 6tH WORST goaltending they can finish 4th overall then win four games against the back-to-back champs (only three of them actually counted, but they still did it).

If Murray is healthy, and he gives the Leafs even just average goaltending, they will improve massively. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

I don’t love this trade, I personally wouldn’t have had the guts to not overpay massively for a top tier starter.  But I respect that the Leafs are sticking with their “goalies aren’t worth paying for” philosophy that has proven successful (and which the Colorado Avalanche stole).

This move carries basically no risk, and the Leafs will sign someone like Mike Comrie or Ilya Samsonov to lessen it further.  Maybe they sign two goalies and since no one is likely to claim Murray, if he is a team player who will waive his NTC, they could solve that 3rd goalie problem that’s been bugging them too.

Either way, this is a low risk move that might pay off and in that light it’s hard to complain.