Toronto Maple Leafs: Thoughts on Potential Matt Murray Trade

With the rumours intensifying that the Toronto Maple Leafs are making a strong bid for Matt Murray; you have to wonder just how much a trade will cost.

The Ottawa Senators seemingly have their two goalies tied up and are trying to rid themselves of a $6.25 cap hit for the next two years, but that doesn’t mean the Toronto Maple Leafs will want to be paying it.

In fact, this is a really curious state of play given both teams have something the other wants. The Senators no doubt want to free up the wasted cap space, the Maple Leafs want a goaltender.

As reported by Elliotte Friedman, discussions seem to be intensifying, but what would actually represent good value?

Toronto Maple Leafs Must and Matt Murray

If the Toronto Maple Leafs are certain that they want to bring Matt Murray aboard as one of their goalies, they absolutely can’t allow the Senators to win the trade.

Given they themselves just traded down 13 places at the NHL Draft to ensure they shook free of a $3.8 million goalie contract, they can’t really settle for anything less.

So, straight up, if we’re talking value here – Matt Murray must cost the Senators a first-round pick to be good value.

However, when you take a step back from that one-for-one thinking; the Maple Leafs need salary to be retained. That tips the scales back towards the Senators, albeit how far, given even at half-price, Murray is still only just shy of the Mrazek cap hit.

You have to wonder who’s doing the other team the biggest favour. Are the Toronto Maple Leafs that set on Matt Murray or are the Ottawa Senators that desperate to rid themselves of him.

Looking to the balancing act a little further, you can start discussing three-way trades and the opportunity for double salary retention; again, great for the Leafs but requiring another piece.

Here’s where I think you find the true trade value of Matt Murray.

Firstly, you take the first round pick off the table and swap it in for a second or third round option or the equivalent in terms of a prospect.

Secondly, you have a skim through their roster and realise that there aren’t many cap-controlled players that are all that appealing. There’s plenty on entry-level deals but given their rebuilding, do they allow one to leave.

If the answer to that is yes; Shane Pinto is the man the Maple Leafs should pursue. He doesn’t seem to have a top-six upside necessarily but he’d be a fantastic fit in the bottom-six for a few years.

Alternately, you really push the boat out and make that asking price Jacob Bernard-Docker; a young right-side defenseman that probably sits on the third pairing in Toronto.

So all up, a trade between just Toronto and Ottawa is likely to cost Ottawa between a 1st and 3rd round pick, salary retention and possibly a player as well.

It’s interesting times as the Ottawa Senators clearly want to move out a contract that is costing them a lot in wasted money. However, they’re not exactly tight to the salary cap even with their expiring deals.

With their move for Alex DeBrincat at the NHL Draft, they’ve clearly made the call that perhaps this rebuild is moving to a new phase; is this a case of having to deal out a prospect to truly signal the new era?

Watch this space; whatever happens, the Toronto Maple Leafs absolutely have to get this right. Matt Murray may be a two-time Stanley Cup winner, but he would be replacing a very popular incumbent and would need to be up to standard or otherwise, bring a solid return with him.