The Toronto Maple Leafs Can Play It Safe or Get Creative

Every article I read about the Toronto Maple Leafs talks about their supposed cap trouble.

This is incorrect. The Toronto Maple Leafs do not have a cap problem.

They currently have $6.5 million in unused space. 

Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl combine to make $5.5 and will be very easy to trade and replace internally.

If the Leafs want to, they are starting with $12 million in cap space.

That isn’t a problem, that’s an advantage, considering they already have all their core pieces looked up.

The Sandin Problem and the Toronto Maple Leafs

We’ll know for sure in a week or two, but I believe that what we’re reading about Sandin (about how there is no place for him to play and the Leafs might not sign him) is because the insiders are taking what they hear and applying it to the Leafs logically as if they were a regular team.

But they are not, and I believe they will surprise us with a series of moves most people didn’t see coming.

They aren’t losing a 23 year old defenseman who is a potential superstar hall of famer (look: probably he isn’t those things, but it’s not completely out of the question, and we do know he is very good) to keep a guy who is ten years older and who was already injury prone before being concussed twice this spring.

If Tampa can get Ryan McDonagh to waive is NTC without ruining their player-friendly rep, so can the Leafs.  

But here is the twist: While Muzzin is declining, TJ Brodie was still a star-level player last year.  Brodie’s $5 million cap hit is fine if he keeps being Mr. Reliable, but eventually age will catch up with him.

The problem is that if Muzzin and Holl are traded, suddenly a Rielly, Brodie, Sandin, Liljegren top-four seems a little soft.

I think hockey often overrates the physical element at the expense of talent, but ideally you at least want one large, aggressive, mean player among your main defensemen.

So if you move Muzzin in order to play the two kids in the top four, which is an absolute necessity, then since you’re stuck with Rielly, you now have to move Brodie to target some toughness.

The Toronto Maple Leafs could have over $22 million in cap space, by far the most among any contender (Calgary has to sign their two best players, so they don’t count) if they get rid of two of their best current  defensemen in order to make way for the two players who are ready to become their best defensemen.

There is never any good way to time such a change.  If you wait too long, you’ll lose Sandin, and since that is the (by far) worst case scenario, it doesn’t seem too hard to get rid of two guys who are extremely unlikely to continue as star players.

Their bottom six can be filled out with Engvall and some rookies.  Their blue-line would need a top player and they’d need a goalie, but they’d have an almost unlimited amount of money to spend.  $22 million minus $3 million for Sandin.

They also have a ton of tradable assets and all their first round draft picks  for the next several years in order to make something happen.

The Toronto Maple Leafs can try to keep their entire team together, risk losing a potential stud defenseman and struggle to find a cheap goalie, or they can move four decent-but-replicable parts (Kerfoot, Holl, Muzzin and Brodie), and get creative.

This is also a way to keep the core of the team in tact, to “walk it back” while also making enough changes that feelings of ennui and malaise hang  over the team.

One way is safe and almost certainly is just a bet on whichever goalie they go with.  The other way is a little riskier, but the rewards are potentially greater because of Sandin and Liljegren’s upside.

The Leafs have the assets and the money to do whatever they want, they just need the nerve to try it.