Toronto Maple Leafs Should Pass On Veteran UFAs

What the Toronto Maple Leafs do during the NHL’s free-agency period will depend on what happens before free agency opens up.

The Toronto Maple Leafs might, for instance, pursue goalie Ville Husso, or by then they might have already traded for a goalie.

Whatever they are looking for, you can be sure at least one of the things are low-cost value players who have higher ceilings.

I’m not sure you can ever hope for another Michael Bunting (his 900K contract was backed by a should-have-been rookie of the year award, and the same amount of 5v5 points as Connor McDavid in 300 less minutes) because that is probably a once-in-a-lifetime situation, but they’ll certainly try.

One thing the Toronto Maple Leafs need to do in free-agency is avoid veterans who will take minutes away from their up and coming prospects.

Toronto Maple Leafs UFA Strategy

If the Leafs could somehow find room for Johnny Gaudreau, Filip Forsberg, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, or Pierre Bergeron, then by all means they absolutely should.

I don’t, however, think that a superstar addition is in the cards this summer.

At least not by free-agency.  The top tier of UFAs is pretty much closed to the Leafs for various reasons.

And we know for a fact that the Leafs will feast on the lower-end guys, signing several $2 million or less players and playing the odds that they find another Kampf if not a Bunting.

But where they need to avoid is the mid-range players. The players who offer a solid floor of production, but very little ceiling.

Take Calle Jarnkrok for instance.

A generally solid player, Jarnkrok is 31 when next season starts, and likely signs for a modest sum.  The only problem here is that he is 100% guaranteed to make the team, and has basically no upside.

Here is the equation:

You can have Jarnkrok for say $2.5 million.  He is almost guaranteed to be superior to Robertson, Abramov or Knies on opening night.  But if you sign him, those guys, and their massive upsides, are prevented from getting a chance.   The reward is a slightly above average bottom six winger who won’t hurt the team.

This is what the Leafs need to avoid.  Their stars will make them good enough. But they can’t afford to shut the door on potential.

In the past, the Leafs have given minutes that could have gone to young players to Jason Spezza, Kyle Clifford, Wayne Simmonds, etc.

The Leafs can’t rely on their rookies for anything, but they can bet on one of them breaking out if they give enough opportunities.  I think we probably see Nick Robertson as a full time NHL player next season, but I’d like the Leafs to save room for Mikhail Abramov, Matthew Knies, Alex Steeves, Top Niemela etc.

They won’t all work out, but one of them might, and the chance for it is a lot more valuable than getting a solid value player like Calle Jarnkrok.