Toronto Maple Leafs: John Tavares Has Been, Is, and Will be Great

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares and made him their Captain four years ago this week.  It’s been a great time, and I can assure you, they regret nothing.

Though playoff success has eluded the Toronto Maple Leafs during Tavares’ tenure, that is hardly his fault.

In fact, taken individually, it’s hard to complain about any of the four first-round losses Tavares has been here for:

Boston: Took a superior team to game seven, lost when Kadri was suspended. Again. (It’s pretty ironic that people have rewritten history to say the Leafs lost Kadri because they signed Tavares.  Not true – they had every intention of keeping both players and Kadri blew it.  It’s also ironic that one of the main reasons people complain about Tavares is the lack of first round victories, something Kadri is far more responsible for, since at least one of them was 100% his fault).

Columbus: Lost in 5 after a six month layoff, to a team that set the modern NHL record for save percentage in a series.  2 x no-name goalies each had a 50 save streak and the Leafs shot under 2 percent. This was probably the most unlucky they have been.

Montreal: Tavares played 2 minutes, was kicked in the head and the Leafs would easily have won if he was healthy.  It took extreme bad luck to lose even with him out.

Tampa: Tavares’ ridiculously disallowed goal would have sent the Leafs to round two, and they were the better team in both games six and seven.  They essentially beat the two-time Champs five times in seven games, but only won three games. NO bad luck this time, just an out-right screwing by the NHL.

So while a lot of people just look at the lack of playoff success and determine that signing Tavares was a mistake (also, the completely out-of-nowhere, extremely unlikely career season at age 31 of Nazem Kadri isn’t helping matters) the fact is, the Leafs signed him and became one of the best teams in the NHL for four straight years, losing in agonizing, but bad-luck-based ways, each year in the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs and John Tavares

Tavares posted a 27 goal, 76 point season where he posted a 54% Expected Goals rating. That ain’t worth 11 big ones, but it’s a damn  fine season by anyone’s measure.

Those are extremely good numbers for a player who is on the second line, and is the fourth power-play scoring option.

The reason that everyone is souring on Tavares is because of his large contract.  That was the cost to sign the best UFA ever, and it was completely worth it.  Sure, the Leafs haven’t won, but they were good enough to, and if they had, this deal would never be questioned.

Surely, results matter over process in real life, but when it comes to evaluating roster moves, I think the process is far more important.  Tavares was signed to mentor the Leafs young stars, provide experience to a young team, and to jump-start the rebuild and make the Leafs instantly competitive.

All of those goals were accomplished, and there are (at the least) three years to try and win still.

Tavares already ranks 47th in all-time Leafs scoring, and likely breaks the top 30 next season. He is 42nd in career goals.

The main reason people are down about JT right now is because of Kadri, who had a break-out season at age 31 – the kind of thing that just doesn’t generally happen.

Tavares and Kadri are the same age, and Tavares has been better in 12 of 13 seasons to date, and will be better in every season for the rest of their careers, because he is a way, way, way better player.

Tavares crushed the minutes he played this season, but Leafs goalies did very badly when he was on the ice, posting a save percentage under 90% for the second time in three years while he was on the ice.

If the goaltending was slightly better, Tavares would be winning his minutes and no one would complain.  Were Tavares the best defensive player in the world, his on-ice save percentage would be the exact same, so this dip is circumstantial and not at all his fault.

Going forward, Tavares should age pretty gracefully since he isn’t physical and was never fast.  If he gets a little bump in his individual shooting percentage, he’ll be back in the 40 goal range no problems.

The Toronto Maple Leafs (and their fans) are lucky to have Tavares, his contract is fine, he’s a great player, the team has done spectacularly since he was acquired, and while an eventual move to the wing is likely in the cards, there is no chance (nor should there be) of the Leafs attempting to trade him.