Prediction
As Pierre Engvall is 26, he likely is what he is.
A player who on the high end, might be good for roughly 35 points over an 82 game schedule. Although I do think it’s important to take the different options into account, I think it’s much more likely that Engvall signs for 3 years or less on his next contract.
The Leafs have made it clear in recent years that they won’t pay big money to mid-range players, so they are unlikely to offer a long-term deal with big money to Engvall.
In looking at the numbers and the different situations of the players, I think the most comparable deals are: Zach Aston-Reese, Trevor Moore, and Zach Sanford. So, he likely signs for above $1.7 million. However, I also think Sanford’s AAV was a little too high and looking at the comparable deals, seemed to be a little bit of an overpay. Also, taking into account some of the other deals Dubas has signed for lower-end players, he’ll likely come in below that deal.
My prediction is that Engvall’s next deal will be similar to the Trevor Moore contract. Somewhere in the range of 2-3 years, as I think they’ll try to lock-down a player of his skillset to a lower AAV and get some cost certainty. I also predict he’ll come somewhere between $1.75 million to $1.9 million.
This would put him right around the 2.12% and 2.3% cap hit percentage like Aston-Reese and Moore, with an $82.5 million cap for 2022-2023. There is always the possibility he takes a haircut to keep the cost down but I do think this would be somewhere in the ballpark of what he should get based on what he brings to the table.