Will the Toronto Maple Leafs Re-Sign Pierre Engvall?
Pierre Engvall’s Career with the Toronto Maple Leafs
As previously mentioned, Engvall is one of the Leafs main penalty kill options, who can chip in here and there offensively.
He was one of the biggest pieces in the Leafs more aggressive style of penalty kill later in the season. Sometimes referred to as a power-kill, he generated quality offensive chances by creating turnovers. Then, using his high end speed, carry the puck the other way and create odd-man rushes or breakaways.
It’s evident in the stats as well, he was second on the Leafs and tied for 12th league-wide in GF/60 among forwards with 2.5 on the PK. However, he was worst on the Leafs in GA/60 with 7.96 but he was 65th worst league-wide. (stats naturalstattrick.com).
The next worst on the Leafs was Marner at 7.93, he was 68th worst. Given the Leafs had an 8th best penalty kill this season, this isn’t something that should really harm him in terms of contract negotiations.
Although he’s a valuable player on the PK, his relative lack of production should bring down the AAV (Average Annual Value) on his next deal. In 168 games throughout his career, he has a total of 30 goals and 32 assists for 62 points. This past year he hit a career high in just every offensive category with 15 goals and 20 assists for 35 points in 78 games. It was also an uptick in his points per game (PPG) where he scored at a rate of 0.45.
Now that we have a good idea of the player we’re looking at, let’s look at some comparable contracts to try and see what Engvall could fetch.
Long-Term Contract
In terms of long-term contracts, besides a few outliers, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of precedence for someone of Engvall’s abilities. There are of course a few that we could look at to see what he could get on the higher end.
Calle Jarnkrok:
Jarnkrok at 24, had similar production to Engvall when he signed his 6-year contract carrying a $2 million AAV (2.74% cap hit percentage, all cap info capfriendly.com) in 2016. In 167 games, Jarnkrok had tallied 57 points, a 0.34 PPG compared to Engvall’s 0.37.
Joel Armia:
Armia signed his 4-year deal carrying a $3.4 million AAV (4.17% cap hit percentage) last off-season. Over his career he produced 125 points in 336 games played, which averages out to a 0.37 PPG the exact same as Engvall. He was also only a year older at the time.
I used these two players as an example of what a long-term deal could look like on both the high and low end of the spectrum.
I doubt Engvall comes in closer to Armia as he was a UFA when his previous contract had expired and the Habs likely had to pay more to retain his services. So, if Engvall does take a long-term deal, I’d expect it to be more in the ballpark of Jarnkrok’s 2.74% cap hit. In 2022, with an $82.5 cap ceiling, that puts Engvall at $2.26 million per season over a 4 years of term or more, in length.
Short-term Contract
Unlike with the long term contracts, there is a lot of precedence for bottom-six players to be signed on a short-term basis. As such, we will look at four players who fit similar profiles to Engvall, to try to hammer out where he might sign. I’m going to go in ascending order, from the lowest to highest comparable contracts.
Josh Leivo:
Similarly to Engvall, Josh Leivo signed his one-year, $1.5 million deal in 2019-20 with the Vancouver Canucks at the age of 26. In 2019-20, $1.5 million was 1.84% of the salary cap ceiling. He also signed this after coming off a breakout offensive season that saw him put 24 points in 76 games. It should be mentioned that he scored 18 of those points in the 49 games after being traded to the Canucks. Overall, in 133 he scored 46 points (0.35 PPG) up to this point.
Zach Aston-Reese:
Last off-season, Aston-Reese signed a one-year, $1.725 million deal (2.12% caphit percentage) with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Once again, he was the same age as Engvall when he signed this. An interesting point too, is that this deal came after Aston-Reese filed for salary arbitration.
It wasn’t ruled by an arbitrator but it likely explains the AAV being where it is, even with his relatively low production. When Aston-Reese signed this deal, he had identical numbers to Engvall. In 161 games he produced 51 points (0.32 PPG), where as Engvall has 62 points in 168 games (0.37 PPG). Another similarity is that Aston-Reese is known for being a strong defensive winger, just like Engvall.
Trevor Moore:
Moore, like Aston-Reese signed his deal last off-season at 26. However, he signed for two years at $1.825 million per season (2.30% caphit percentage) with the Los Angeles Kings. He didn’t play as many games at that point as Engvall did however, playing 123 and producing 41 points (0.33 PPG). When averaged out to points per game, it’s a little lower than Engvall’s. Again, Moore fits the bill as a comparable player being a bottom-six contributor who plays the PK.
Zach Sanford:
Finally, Sanford is the last and highest AAV player on this list. Last year, he signed a one year, $2 million deal with the St. Louis Blues. This put him at 2.45% of the NHL’s salary cap. Up to this point, Sanford had played 209 NHL games, reaching 74 points (0.35 PPG). He fits the archetype as another bottom-six penalty killer but he is a little different than the others on the list, as he’s more of a grinder type player. His contract also has the highest AAV on this list and his production was more inline with Engvall’s 0.37 PPG.
Prediction
As Pierre Engvall is 26, he likely is what he is.
A player who on the high end, might be good for roughly 35 points over an 82 game schedule. Although I do think it’s important to take the different options into account, I think it’s much more likely that Engvall signs for 3 years or less on his next contract.
The Leafs have made it clear in recent years that they won’t pay big money to mid-range players, so they are unlikely to offer a long-term deal with big money to Engvall.
In looking at the numbers and the different situations of the players, I think the most comparable deals are: Zach Aston-Reese, Trevor Moore, and Zach Sanford. So, he likely signs for above $1.7 million. However, I also think Sanford’s AAV was a little too high and looking at the comparable deals, seemed to be a little bit of an overpay. Also, taking into account some of the other deals Dubas has signed for lower-end players, he’ll likely come in below that deal.
My prediction is that Engvall’s next deal will be similar to the Trevor Moore contract. Somewhere in the range of 2-3 years, as I think they’ll try to lock-down a player of his skillset to a lower AAV and get some cost certainty. I also predict he’ll come somewhere between $1.75 million to $1.9 million.
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This would put him right around the 2.12% and 2.3% cap hit percentage like Aston-Reese and Moore, with an $82.5 million cap for 2022-2023. There is always the possibility he takes a haircut to keep the cost down but I do think this would be somewhere in the ballpark of what he should get based on what he brings to the table.