Toronto Maple Leafs: No Bridge Deals For Future Stars

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to get the biggest internal boost next season since they added Auston Matthews to their lineup.

That is because after two stellar rookie seasons, Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin are about to take major steps towards stardom.  The Toronto Maple Leafs need to lock them both up long-term.

It is not often a team can simultaneously promote two star defenseman to the top of their lineup, but that is exactly what is happening right now in Toronto.

Morgan Rielly has had a nice run as the unquestioned #1 defenseman in Toronto, but that title is going to Timothy Liljegren at some point next season, and therefore, it will be best to sign both he and Sandin for as long as they can.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Their 2 Future Stars

Timothy Liljegren was the Leafs most effective defenseman last season, and Rasmus Sandin wasn’t far behind.   No competitive team had a 3rd pairing anywhere close to as effective as the Leafs had (even when Sandin was injured and Giordano took his place, this remained true).

In the NHL, even though fans and and analysts often excuse the performance of players who do well lower in the lineup, quality of competition isn’t actually that big of a deal, because a) everyone ends up playing against everyone else most of the time, and b) it almost always transfers when players are moved up.

That means that if Timothy Liljegren was the Leafs best statistical defenseman (indisputable, as Toronto had the highest percentage of shot-attempts, shots, dangerous scoring chances, goals and expected goals when he was on the ice vs every other defenseman they used).

Additionally, Liljegren scored 20 points in 61 games without ever getting on the power-play consistently. That’s nuts.  He scored at the 17th highest rate among NHL defenseman last year who played a minimum of 500 minutes.

And again, Rasmus Sandin is also very good.

They will both move into the Leafs top-four next season for sure, and their ascension to big minutes will be a massive boost to the team.  With all due respect to Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie and Holl, the Leafs haven’t had anyone as good as Sandin and Liljegren will be next season in their top four in the Auston Matthews era.

And so, while both players will surely sign short deals that start with the number 2, the Leafs should be looking at eight year pacts if they can get them.  I would bet on both these players being worth $7 plus by the time their next contract comes along.

The Leafs weren’t able to do this with Matthews or Marner, because they were just too good after their entry-level deal ended, but they pulled it off with Nylander, Kadri and Rielly.  They know it works, so the Leafs should try to get both players  overpaid in the shorterm on deals meant to become super-team friendly in a year or two. (All stats naturalstattrick.com).

Given their cap situation, they might be forced into bridge deals, but as we’ve seen in the past, those are likely to blow up in your face.  Liljegren is tracking to be one of the best defenseman in the word short of Cale Maker, and locking him up would be a stroke of genius.  Sandin is a bonus, but even just locking up just one of them long-term would be good enough.

Don’t be fooled by Sheldon Keefe’s horrendous blunder to keep his best defender out of the lineup, only to lose by a single goal – Liljegren has been worth the wait and he’s on the path to being the best defenseman the Leafs have drafted this century.  It’s best to avoid a bridge deal.