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Expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to Sign Ilya Lyubushkin

By James Tanner

TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 24: Ilya Lyubushkin #46 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Minnesota Wild during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 24, 2022 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Wild 3-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - FEBRUARY 24: Ilya Lyubushkin #46 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates with the puck against the Minnesota Wild during an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on February 24, 2022 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Wild 3-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /
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I have seen a lot of people speculating that the Toronto Maple Leafs will decline to re-sign Ilya Lyubushkin.

This is crazy! The Toronto Maple Leafs will definitely be re-signing the rugged d-man.

Somehow, the Leafs managed to get an actual asset for Nick Ritchie.  A couple weeks before the trade deadline, they sent a 2023 3rd round pick (or a 2nd in 2025) to the Coyotes, along with Nick Ritchie and his contract for next season in exchange for Ryan Dzingle (he never played for the Leafs) and Lyubushkin.

Considering the Leafs went on to use Lyubushkin as a top pairing defender, I’d say this is a pretty sweet trade.

Toronto Maple Leafs and Ilya Lyubushkin

The 28 year old righ-handed defenseman is an elite defender and a D-minus offensive player.

The reason the Leafs will bring him back is because right handed defenseman are hard to find, and so are players who are rough and physical without sacrificing actual defense to make it happen.

As a player who never scores, and likely never will, Lyubushkin has extremely limited earning potential.  No one is giving him $3 million annually (and if they do, good riddance).

He is unrestricted, but the Leafs do have the option to negotiate before he hits the market.  Term for a player like this is  pretty rare, so it can likely be traded for a low cap hit.  I am guessing something like $1.5 per year for three years.

That would be a very good contract for the Leafs, and it would give them the right-handed, physical player they have long sought.

Beyond that though, it gives them a ton of flexibility.  Going forward, Timothy Liljegren is the #1 right-side defenseman, and if you have Lyubushkin that gives you some wiggle room with Holl and Brodie (whose NTC is preventing them from better allocating their money).  Ideally you could get rid of both and use that $7 million on a goalie.

Either way, Lyubushkin is best suited to a bottom-pairing role, and needs to be kept far from Morgan Rielly.  But, with those two conditions met, he’s an excellent sixth or seventh defenseman with a bit of ceiling.

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Lyubushkin is right handed, hits and is guaranteed to be reasonable cheap. His signing will give the Toronto Maple Leafs a lot of flexibility to make or consider other moves, and so you can expect that doing so will be one of the first things the Leafs do this summer.

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