A Potential Defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs to Trade For

This off-season,   there are changes coming for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Maybe not “blow it up” changes like some would hope but changes nonetheless.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to keep their coach, GM and President, as well as Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander.

They just re-signed Mark Giordano, but everyone else’s return is up in the air.

The Leafs need to make some changes – some cap related, some out of necessity.

One area of change should be Morgan Rielly’s partner, who was Ilya Lyubushkin when the season ended.  As much as Ilya Lyubushkin had many supporters, he clearly lacked something when partnering with Rielly. It was evident that his foot speed and mobility was lacking, combined with his offensive abilities or lack-thereof.

This lack of cohesion lead to the Rielly-Lyubushkin pairing sitting 21st out of 29 pairings that played over 60 minutes in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). However, they were 10th out of that same 29 in expected goals for per 60 minutes. In terms of actual production, they didn’t fair much better. In GF/60 they were 17th out of 29 and 21st out of 29 in GA/60.

These numbers clearly aren’t the worst but it would be nice to look for an upgrade at that position. Since Rielly isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, it’d be in Kyle Dubas’ best interest to make it work.

That brings me to the player I think the Toronto Maple Leafs should acquire this summer.

Who Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire?

If there is any player the Leafs should go after for Rielly’s next partner, it’s Dylan DeMelo.

There are a myriad of reasons but one of the biggest selling points is his contract. DeMelo is 29 and is signed until 2024, with a cap hit of only $3 million. That’s a bargain deal for his abilities, which I will get to later.

First, let’s look at why the Leafs might choose to upgrade that position.

Assuming Muzzin returns next season, which based on his end of season press conference, it sounds likely. This means if the combinations at the end of the season and playoffs are any indication, him and likely Brodie play together. As well, with the emergence of Sandin and Liljegren, it would make the most sense for them to get a regular spot in the rotation.

Since they have a history as a pairing at both the AHL and NHL levels — with amazing results — they will likely pair up. This leaves Rielly and Holl as the only other blueliners currently under team control to play together.

It could be a coincidence but they’ve never really been a pairing for any length of time. They only played together for 45 minutes all of last season over 48 games. In their time on the ice together, they’ve had positive results but the sample size is hardly large enough to come to any big conclusions.

If Keefe’s reluctance to use them as a pairing isn’t just a coincidence, this would make upgrading on Holl an important issue.

DeMelo’s Ability

Luckily for the Toronto Maple Leafs, DeMelo isn’t the “sexiest name” out there, which should keep the cost low but that’s not a slight on his ability.

In Winnipeg, he played large portions of the season next to Josh Morrissey on the top pair with amazing results. This is exactly why he’d be a great fit with Rielly, he’s a defensive-minded defenseman with a history of playing top pair minutes and well, next to a puck-moving partner.

As shown by the chart below, although he doesn’t typically play top pair minutes on his own, his partner usually does. More often than not, he also finds himself matched up against the oppositions top players.

(Chart via hockeyviz.com and Moneypuck.com)

The Morrissey-DeMelo pairing were the Jets most effective that played more than 100 minutes together, in terms of xGF%. They also ranked second in both xGA/60 and xGF/60.

The pairing that lead in xGA/60 also featured DeMelo with his other primary partner, Logan Stanley. Individually, he ranks first among Jets defensemen in xGA/60 and GA/60. He also ranks second by CA/60 and first in FA/60. His defensive abilities can’t be understated, he’s the best on the Jets roster.

Evidenced as well by his shot location heat map below. He’s great at keeping shots mainly to the outside while he’s on the ice and clearing out the slot.

The last and final point in favour of DeMelo, is his effect on teammates.

Almost every player that plays with him drastically improve in both xGF/60 and xGA/60, mainly the latter. His great defensive abilities elevate not only the team but almost everyone who shares the ice with him.