A Potential Defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs to Trade For

Who Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire?

If there is any player the Leafs should go after for Rielly’s next partner, it’s Dylan DeMelo.

There are a myriad of reasons but one of the biggest selling points is his contract. DeMelo is 29 and is signed until 2024, with a cap hit of only $3 million. That’s a bargain deal for his abilities, which I will get to later.

First, let’s look at why the Leafs might choose to upgrade that position.

Assuming Muzzin returns next season, which based on his end of season press conference, it sounds likely. This means if the combinations at the end of the season and playoffs are any indication, him and likely Brodie play together. As well, with the emergence of Sandin and Liljegren, it would make the most sense for them to get a regular spot in the rotation.

Since they have a history as a pairing at both the AHL and NHL levels — with amazing results — they will likely pair up. This leaves Rielly and Holl as the only other blueliners currently under team control to play together.

It could be a coincidence but they’ve never really been a pairing for any length of time. They only played together for 45 minutes all of last season over 48 games. In their time on the ice together, they’ve had positive results but the sample size is hardly large enough to come to any big conclusions.

If Keefe’s reluctance to use them as a pairing isn’t just a coincidence, this would make upgrading on Holl an important issue.

DeMelo’s Ability

Luckily for the Toronto Maple Leafs, DeMelo isn’t the “sexiest name” out there, which should keep the cost low but that’s not a slight on his ability.

In Winnipeg, he played large portions of the season next to Josh Morrissey on the top pair with amazing results. This is exactly why he’d be a great fit with Rielly, he’s a defensive-minded defenseman with a history of playing top pair minutes and well, next to a puck-moving partner.

As shown by the chart below, although he doesn’t typically play top pair minutes on his own, his partner usually does. More often than not, he also finds himself matched up against the oppositions top players.

(Chart via hockeyviz.com and Moneypuck.com)

The Morrissey-DeMelo pairing were the Jets most effective that played more than 100 minutes together, in terms of xGF%. They also ranked second in both xGA/60 and xGF/60.

The pairing that lead in xGA/60 also featured DeMelo with his other primary partner, Logan Stanley. Individually, he ranks first among Jets defensemen in xGA/60 and GA/60. He also ranks second by CA/60 and first in FA/60. His defensive abilities can’t be understated, he’s the best on the Jets roster.

Evidenced as well by his shot location heat map below. He’s great at keeping shots mainly to the outside while he’s on the ice and clearing out the slot.

The last and final point in favour of DeMelo, is his effect on teammates.

Almost every player that plays with him drastically improve in both xGF/60 and xGA/60, mainly the latter. His great defensive abilities elevate not only the team but almost everyone who shares the ice with him.

Conclusion

Dylan DeMelo would be a phenomenal addition  to the Toronto Maple Leafs. He’s a near perfect fit, he has a history of playing with an offensive-defenseman, against top competition. He also elevates almost every teammate he plays with and comes at a low cap-hit of $3 million for two more seasons.

There are some problems that could arise like, Winnipeg’s willingness to move him. If the Jets play him with Morrissey, they may not be keen to move on from him. Unless, they choose to “re-tool” considering they missed the playoffs this year and have some holes to fill as well as some aging players.

The other issue could be his acquisition cost and contract terms.

When DeMelo was traded to Winnipeg, they only gave up a third round pick to Ottawa as he was a rental. As evidenced by his great play in Winnipeg and his cheap contract, the cost would likely be quite a bit higher. Also, he has a six team no-trade list. The exact terms aren’t public knowledge so if the Leafs are on the list, he might not be willing to waive.

However, barring the Leafs being on his no-trade list, there could be a deal to be had. One of the areas the Jets struggled in was goal scoring, they were 20th in GF/60 this season. A player that could be useful to them is Alex Kerfoot. He set a career high in points this season and with Paul Stastny’s deal being up, they might be in the market for a younger middle-six winger. He also carries a similar cap hit to DeMelo, only costing $500K more and with most of this year’s salary being bonus money, he could be an enticing option.

There a lot of moving parts to the possibility of the Leafs acquiring Dylan DeMelo. It will depend on a few key factors but he’s a name that seems to be flying under the radar. All I know is that it should be an interesting off-season as the Leafs try to improve their team enough to hopefully play more than seven games next post-season.