Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Are Right to Stick With Management

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Fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs have more reason than most to feel disillusioned after yet another first round exit.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been knocked out of the first round every time they’ve made it since 2004.

In recent years, since the Leafs first playoff appearance in the Matthews era in 2016-17, they’ve been knocked out of the first round five times (six if you include the qualifying round in 2020).

In this time they’ve set the franchise record for points in a season twice. On top of that, their star-studded lineup has broken record after record individually since they entered the league.

All this to say, their playoff failures cannot be understated.

They’re entering the seventh season of the Matthews era and they should be perennial contenders by now. However, it’s still not time to hit the panic button.

Feb 22, 2020; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs Front office/Coaching staff

Since Kyle Dubas was named GM in 2018, the team has consistently improved. In 2018-19 although “his team” many would agree that Lou Lamoriello’s fingerprints were still all over it. They still had the albatross contracts of Patrick Marleau and Nikita Zaitsev. As well as the underwhelming defensive core that Lou left behind. Also, as would soon become clear, a pretty bare prospect cupboard that wasn’t going to produce much at the NHL level.

Since taking over Dubas has made massive improvements to the depth, prospect pool, and most notably the defensive group. Besides a setback in 2019-20 that saw Dubas fire then head coach Mike Bacbock and replace him with Sheldon Keefe, the team has steadily improved.

This past year they were a top ten defensive team by every metric, ranking as high as fourth in expected goals. This, combined with them ranking no lower than seventh in every offensive metric shows they’re a talented team at both ends of the ice. (stats naturalstattrick.com).

Firing Kyle Dubas won’t make the team better. Besides a few trades you’d like a mulligan on (which happens with every GM) and the team’s inability to get over the playoff hump, Dubas’ record so far in the NHL is great.

He’s locked up his core pieces like: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Morgan Rielly. All while adding key supporting cast players like: TJ Brodie, Jake Muzzin, Michael Bunting, and David Kämpf. The latter two being signed for a combined $2.45 million until the end of next season. He’s expertly navigated the “cap hell” everyone says they’re in and has been able to find diamonds in the rough.

He’s too soon into his tenure for his draft choices to have really paid off but Rasmus Sandin has been great so far in his young career. While other notable prospects like Nick Robertson, Matthew Knies, and Topi Niemela look like they could be steals. Dubas has also been able to add to his prospect pool and NHL depth without draft picks by signing players like: Alex Steeves, Kristians Rubins, and Erik Källgren.

All the reasons listed for Dubas not to be fired, they can almost all be applied to Sheldon Keefe as well. In both of his two full seasons behind the bench he’s either been on pace to or has set the franchise record for points in a season. Overall in 185 games, Keefe has a record of 116-50-19 with a points percentage of .678%. (hockeyreferece.com).

He too has gotten better every year, finishing this past season with a .701%, firing him at this point would be short-sighted. The same goes for assistant coaches Spencer Carbery and Dean Chynoweth. They brought the power-play and penalty kill from 16th and 23rd to 1st and 8th respectively, league-wide.

If the Leafs were to fire Kyle Dubas and/or the coaching staff they’d likely be worse off for it. They’ve been able to put together a great roster and organization as whole, despite not getting past the first round. They’ve done more than enough to deserve a longer look to see this team through.

May 4, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Core

I could write a full article per player about how great the core of this team is. None of them should be moved, at least not yet. They’re all either too valuable in terms of on-ice production or relative to their contract.

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner fall into the former category. Matthews could realistically win the Rocket, Hart Memorial Trophy, and Ted Lindsay award for his play this season. He also set the Leafs record for goals in a season, scoring 60 while playing an outstanding 200-foot game.

Marner himself was on pace for 110 points while playing elite defensively and being a valuable member of the NHL’s eighth ranked penalty kill. Even at a combined $22.543 million cap hit, they’re both worth every penny and probably more.

William Nylander and John Tavares, although struggling at points, both had consistent seasons. Nylander scored a career high 34 goals and 46 assists for 80 points in 81 games this season and backed it up with a dominant playoff performance, again.

Between his production in the regular season and playoffs, the Leafs would have a hard time finding a way to replace that at $6.9 million. Tavares is the captain and despite showing his age at times, he still produced 76 points in 79 games and he too had a dominant playoff performance. They both should be safe.

The “core four” as they’re often referred to, were nothing short of stellar in both the regular season and playoffs. The young trio of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all set career highs in goals and points this season. None of them should go anywhere, trading any of them hurts the team more than it’s worth.

TORONTO, ON – MAY 2: Auston Matthews #34 of the Toronto Maple Leafs . (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) /

Conclusion

Success is never linear and it takes time to win.

For every Pittsburgh or Chicago there are a handful of other teams that spent years running it back before finally winning. The past four Stanley Cup winners have been teams that spent years with a core and continued to draft, develop, and tweak with their roster before finally getting over the hurdle.

The Tampa Bay Lightning drafted Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman first and second overall in back-to-back drafts in 2008 and 2009.

They then only made the playoffs once in the first five years after drafting Stamkos. After that, it took them seven more years to win their first cup. Even though they did have more playoff success over that time, after 11 years, many people questioned whether that core could ever win a cup.

Now, they’re the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions and could very well win their third in a row this season. Management stayed patient and continued to draft and develop key players that would help them go on to win a cup.

The Washington Capitals drafted Alex Ovechkin first overall in 2004. They only made it past the first round once in five years and didn’t even qualify for two seasons. Despite putting up strong numbers in the post season, many people questioned not only Ovechkin’s leadership abilities but if a team built with a franchise winger could ever win a cup. Finally, after 13 seasons in the NHL, Ovechkin lifted the Stanley Cup over his head.

Next. 4 Leafs Likely to Get Traded. dark

The Toronto Maple Leafs clearly have the talent to make noise in the post-season. They took the defending cup champions to a tight 2-1 game seven. As much as fans want a head on a pike, it’s not necessary to get this team to the next level. Dubas and Co. should keep the core together until they can’t any longer.

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