The Math on the Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Playoffs Run

The Toronto Maple Leafs have begun their quest to win the 2022 Stanley Cup. We evaluate the probability of the Leafs success through each round.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have put the league on notice after winning the opening game of its series against the Tampa Bay Lightning in grand fashion. They took the first game 5-0. That may have set the table for a deep run into the playoffs, but what does the math say?

Playoff Status has done the calculations, and things look promising for the Leafs. Going into Game 1, the Maple Leafs were given a 14-percentage point advantage to take the series from the Bolts. Toronto had a 57% chance of progressing to the second round, compared to Tampa’s 43%. With Auston Matthews’ continuing to play on easy mode, and the Leafs leading in the series, the numbers have changed.

According to nhl.com, history has shown that Game 1 winners have a significant advantage in winning a best-of-7 NHL post season series. Last year, in the first round, six of the eight teams who won their first game also took the series. Overall, in 727 NHL best-of-7 series, 499 teams have been victorious after winning the first game. That’s a winning rate of 68.8 %

Toronto Maple Leafs and  Round 2

With their Game 1 win, the math has shifted from the Leafs having a 57% chance of making the next round to 72%. That means the Bolts chances have been reduced to just 28%

If the Toronto Maple Leafs make it to the second round, they would play the winner between the Florida Panthers and Washington Capitals. This math is firmly behind the Panthers in this series. They have an 83% chance of winning the series. This means that there is a very good chance that there will be a Toronto-Florida Round 2 matchup.

The good news for the Leafs is that they are likely to break their streak of losing seven straight playoff series. The club hasn’t advanced beyond the first round since 2004. That should change this year but the math doesn’t look good past the second round.

Conference Championship

The Leafs have a 33% chance of playing in the Conference Championship. In comparison, the Panthers have a 52% chance. The Lightning have a 11-per cent chance of making it to the third round and the Capitals have just a 5-per cent chance.

One of the above teams will play for the Eastern Conference Championship. They will have one of four possible opponents. Those clubs are the Carolina Hurricanes (46-per cent), the New York Rangers (31-per cent), the Boston Bruins (13-per cent), and the Pittsburgh Penguins (10-per cent).

Stanley Cup Finals

The Maple Leafs have a team capable of making all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. They are competing against all the other Eastern Conference franchises and have the third-greatest odds of the group to play for hockey’s biggest prize.

The Panthers are the most likely representative from the East. They have a 34% chance to make it. The Canes have 22% odds, followed by the Toronto Maple Leafs at 18%.

Winning It All

There are 16 teams with the same post season goal of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Mug. While it’s hard to predict who will win it all, we can continue to follow the math.

The good news for Toronto is that the organization has the fourth-best odds of becoming champions with a 10% chance of making it happen.